Aaron Rodgers TNF Player Prop Bets & Odds
Aaron Rodgers is at the center of the New York Jets’ recent downfall, and he looks to play a key part in righting the ship when the team hosts the Houston Texans at MetLife Stadium on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
- The Jets have scored 22 or fewer points in five straight games
- New York has averaged 16.6 points per game during its five-game losing streak
- The Jets have has a losing streak of at least five games in three consecutive seasons
Our Thursday Night Football odds make the Jets surprising home favorites over the first-place Texans. As part of our Week 9 NFL predictions, we explain what that means for the Jets quarterback in our Aaron Rodgers TNF player prop bets.
Aaron Rodgers prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 completions (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Rodgers longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-114 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Aaron Rodgers player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 completions (-120) ⭐⭐⭐
My first Rodgers player prop is arguably my most contrarian play, as the Texans allow a league-low 53.1% completion rate.
New York’s running game has been non-existent. According to Sharp Football Analysis, it entered last week’s game against the New England Patriots with a league-worst 23.2% of its rushes failing to gain yardage.
I expect the Jets to utilize a similar game plan to what the Packers did two weeks ago, which plays to Rodgers’ strengths. In that game, Jordan Love made heavy use of the quick-passing game, with a career-high 19 completions for 149 passing yards on throws under 2.5 seconds. It should lead to the Jets victory I break down in my Texans vs. Jets prediction.
I do not mind paying up slightly for FanDuel’s -120 odds for this wager, as all the other top sports betting sites have the O/U set at 21.5 completions. A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.33.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Aaron Rodgers longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
The Texans may have the league’s lowest completion rate allowed, but that is also because it plays an aggressive style of defense that is susceptible to big plays.
Houston ranks in the bottom six of the league in yards per completion (11.6) primarily because it has been burned on long touchdown passes of 60, 54, and 69 yards in the two games against the Indianapolis Colts. Thus, it would behoove the Jets to push the ball downfield, especially since the Texans rank in the bottom 10 in yards per catch to perimeter wide receivers.
The Jets have had at least one 35-yard completion in each of the last three weeks, so this number seems more than fair. All our other best sports betting apps are juiced to -115 to back the Over for the same prop.
Best odds: -114 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Rodgers snapped a three-game streak of throwing at least one interception with last week’s clean game against the Patriots. But Rodgers had thrown six interceptions in the three games prior, and his 10-7 TD-INT ratio was his worst through seven games in his career.
Houston has the league’s second-best total defense in terms of yards allowed per game (280.3), and is one of eight teams with at least eight interceptions on the season.
The implied probability for Rodgers to throw an interception is as high as 53.49% based on Caesars’ -115, so I am taking advantage of the best price at BetMGM.
Philip Wood doesn't think it will all be bad news, though. His Texans vs. Jets player prop bets share his favorite Jets player to find paydirt from a Rodgers pass.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Texans vs. Jets odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Texans vs. Jets
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 72 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph SW
- Favorite: Jets -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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