NFL Survivor Picks Week 5: Lions Cruise in Motor City
Betting analyst Neil Parker from Sportsbook Review is putting his faith in the Detroit Lions for Week 5 as he assesses the top NFL survivor picks using NFL odds provided by our best sports betting apps.
Week 4 saw favorites dominating the NFL, with all five of my top-ranked teams securing victories, resulting in very few eliminations among survivor pool participants.
Week 5 presents a couple of significant home favorites to consider, and I anticipate that the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions will be the two most popular choices.
Despite Miami being the larger favorite, I'm leaning towards Detroit, especially with their home advantage and a defense facing Carolina Panthers' rookie quarterback Bryce Young, who has appeared overwhelmed in his first three starts and ranks among the league's worst in nearly every quarterback metric I find valuable.
Here are our NFL survivor picks for Week 5 to accompany all of our NFL predictions for Week 5.
Survivor picks NFL Week 5: Rankings
(NFL Week 5 odds via bet365 as of Oct. 5)
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | vs. Panthers | -10 | -500 | 83.3% |
| 2 | Dolphins | vs. Giants | -11 | -600 | 85.7% |
| 3 | Bills | vs. Jaguars* | -5.5 | -260 | 72.2% |
| 4 | Eagles | at Rams | -4.5 | -220 | 68.8% |
| 5 | Chiefs | at Vikings | -4 | -210 | 67.7% |
| 6 | Commanders | vs. Bears | -6 | -270 | 73% |
| 7 | Bengals | at Cardinals | -3 | -150 | 60% |
| 8 | Ravens | at Steelers | -4 | -200 | 66.7% |
| 9 | 49ers | vs. Cowboys | -3.5 | -180 | 64.3% |
| 10 | Falcons | vs. Texans | -2 | -130 | 56.5% |
* Neutral-site game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!
Survivor picks NFL Week 5: Rankings
4. Eagles (at Rams)
The Los Angeles Rams have been a fun story to start the 2023 season, but this is still a flawed 2-2 team, and fun stories don’t win football games. Look for the Philadelphia Eagles to continue dominating in the trenches while preventing L.A. quarterback Matthew Stafford and his offense from finding a rhythm.
I’m also expecting the Philly offense to expose a Los Angeles defense that’s overachieving relative to its personnel. The Eagles are a sizable road favorite, but sometimes a step back to look at the larger picture to compare teams is helpful, too.
Here’s where these two teams stand in the Super Bowl odds, and their projected win totals for the remainder of the season:
| Team | bet365 Super Bowl odds | bet365 projected win total |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | +700 | Over 12.5 (+105) |
| Rams | +6600 | Over 7.5 (-125) |
3. Bills (vs. Jaguars)
The Buffalo Bills are the superior team, and any kind of London edge the Jacksonville Jaguars possess is already baked into the spread and moneyline.
I’ve used Buffalo already, but I wouldn’t go with the Bills over the Dolphins or Lions. The risk isn’t worth the reward unless both Miami and Detroit lose, and I’m not expecting that to happen.
2. Dolphins (vs. Giants)
I anticipate the Dolphins being the most popular team in survivor contests during Week 5, so that’s why I’m pivoting to the Lions.
Miami wasn’t up to the test in Week 4, but hosting the New York Giants on a short week following a lopsided loss on Monday Night Football is a cushy schedule spot.
The G-Men could benefit from multiple key starters returning to the lineup. But New York's defense needs to show it can stop a top-tier offense. The team's offense also needs to contribute in a meaningful way and protect Daniel Jones.
It’s a lot to ask.
Survivor picks NFL Week 5: Fade
Commanders (vs. Bears)
I suspect there will be poolies piling on the Washington Commanders as a near-touchdown home favorite in Week 5. And if you’re tempted, just know whose hands you’re putting survivor tickets in right now: Commanders head coach Ron Rivera and inexperienced QB Sam Howell.
Riverboat Ron and Howell aren’t a duo I’m comfortable backing at this stage of the season. Plus, as a rule, I try to steer clear of Thursday Night Football games in survivor contests.
Survivor picks NFL Week 5: My pick
1. Lions (vs. Panthers)
The No. 1 reason the Lions are my top survivor pick for Week 6 is because they’re facing Young. He’s averaging just 5.5 air yards, and the rookie sports the third-lowest quarterback DVOA, according to Pro Football Focus. Young also carries the third-worst QB grade.
Detroit has passed the test defensively in three of four games, and the Lions run out a dynamic offense. I’m anticipating Carolina's rush defense struggling again in Week 5, which will allow Detroit to control the time of possession and force Young to play from behind.
Finally, the consistent line movement in Detroit's direction is encouraging.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens ✅ | Buffalo Bills ✅ | Seattle Seahawks ✅ | San Francisco 49ers ✅ | Detroit Lions |
Circa Survivor picks NFL Week 5
Here are the Week 5 picks from the Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest, and it's no surprise to see Miami and Detroit are the two most popular picks.
Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is here!
Kentucky sports betting launched on Sept. 28 - so sign up with the best Kentucky sportsbook promos now! And check out our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps!
21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
