NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 6: Patriots Get Right in Sin City

Even with a disappointing start to the season from the New England Patriots, we’re still turning to the Pats as one of our top NFL upset picks for Week 6. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The New England Patriots sport a disappointing 1-4 record, and they’ve been particularly bad the past two games, with the Pats being outscored 72-3. Still, New England opened as a short, three-point road underdog against the 2-3 Las Vegas Raiders.

Are oddsmakers setting a trap, or is there a little more to this matchup than meets the eye?

For your look at every single NFL game this week, check out our NFL predictions for Week 6.

Our best NFL upset picks for Week 6 are the perfect pair for our NFL best bets (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 6

• Washington Commanders (+124 via DraftKings) vs. Atlanta Falcons ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• New England Patriots (+140 via Caesars) vs. Las Vegas Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145 via BetMGM) vs. Detroit Lions ⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Commanders ML vs. Falcons (+124 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The betting market isn’t too excited about a Commanders team that has lost three straight after a 2-0 start, including a humbling 40-20 loss to a then-winless Bears team last time out on Thursday Night Football. But that gives us the chance at a solid plus price backing Washington as a road underdog, a role in which it took the defending NFC champion Eagles into overtime just two weeks ago.

The Commanders are certainly capable of moving the chains through the air with quarterback Sam Howell, who has thrown for 290 yards or more in three of his last four starts. But Washington’s biggest advantage offensively this week could be with a run game that ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per carry, something the Commanders should be able to stay committed to against the low-scoring Falcons.

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Atlanta has scored just 34 points over its last three games and has yet to score more than 25 in a single game this season. Two of the Falcons' three wins have come by a combined margin of three points, and this game should be in doubt until the dying seconds.

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Patriots ML vs. Raiders (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There’s even less to like about the Pats than the Commanders right now, with New England coming off consecutive losses by a combined score of 72-3. Mac Jones was benched in each of those two games, yet he's expected to be the Patriots’ starting quarterback once again vs. the Raiders.

However, Jones could finally be in line for some success against the Raiders, whose defense pales in comparison to the Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, and Saints, whom New England has faced during a 1-4 straight-up and ATS start.

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Las Vegas has yet to score more than 18 points in a game this season, so it’s unlikely the Pats will find themselves in another huge deficit this week - meaning they can stay committed to the running game and keep the Raiders’ defense off balance.

Not only are the Raiders coming off a short week following Monday’s tight win over Green Bay, but they’re also 6-16 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite and 2-6 SU in their last eight coming off a win.

Buccaneers ML vs. Lions (+145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises so far, sitting at 3-1 and atop the NFC South. Baker Mayfield is avoiding the big mistakes that have plagued his career, throwing for seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. The defense has allowed 17 or less in three of four games and had the bye week to plan for the Lions.

Detroit has averaged 32 points per game during its three-game winning streak, but the Lions aren’t nearly as explosive on grass surfaces on the road, where they’ve been held to 23 points or less in four of their last five. Tampa Bay’s also got the kind of pass rush that has historically given Jared Goff problems.

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Since the start of 2020, the Bucs are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS when playing with more than eight days rest, and 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home. Don’t be surprised if those numbers improve this week against Detroit.

NFL upset picks made 10/11/2023 at 10:01 p.m. ET.

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NFL betting odds pages

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