Super Bowl 57 Betting Insights: BetMGM's Most Bet Player Prop Odds & Predictions

Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is right around the corner, and BetMGM has released its five player props that have seen the largest betting handle. Here’s Neil Parker’s analysis and recommendations for the props based on the best Super Bowl odds.

First things first: I always take betting insights with a grain of salt and usually view them more as a collection of interesting nuggets and less as a source of actionable information. 

In particular, most sportsbooks don’t release when wagers were placed or what the odds were when the bets were made.

Using a specific example, the Over for Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco’s receiving yards total has received 96% of the betting handle. However, we don’t know if the majority of those wagers came in on the opening total of 12.5 or the 16.5 number that was trading as of Thursday afternoon.

For reference, here are the opening totals and odds for the five player props with the highest handle at BetMGM, and the respective numbers as of Thursday’s betting insights release:

As you can see, each of the five props has seen movement to either the total or odds, so blindly backing or fading definitely wouldn’t be my approach. 

The following analysis includes my projections for each player’s prop total, in addition to the true odds based on those numbers. It’s important to note that my prices don’t include a vig, and my projections typically fall on the conservative side. Keep that in mind when comparing my odds to those available through BetMGM.

Check out all our best Super Bowl player props.

Most bet Super Bowl 57 player props

Miles Sanders over 59.5 rushing yards (-125)

My projection and this total are nearly identical, so I’m not rushing to the window to place this bet. I’m also expecting Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott to cut into Sanders’ rushing opportunities. 

Add that this total has climbed five yards from the opening number, and it’s a stay away for me given the -125 juice. Based on my numbers, there’s also a negative expected value of 22%.

Verdict: Fade

Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 rushing yards (-120)

If this Over has taken so much action, why has the total dropped?

I suspect another sportsbook took respected money on the Under for Gainwell’s rushing prop and adjusted the total. Then, BetMGM followed the other book’s line movement.

The most important consideration with this prop is whether Gainwell will receive the same touch volume as he has in the past two playoff games. Philadelphia won comfortably against the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers, and 117 of Gainwell’s 160 rushing yards came in the second half and with those two games in hand.

My numbers also give this wager a negative expected value of 13%, which has me passing on the Over.

Verdict: Fade

Check out our 57 Prop Bets for Super Bowl 57.

Quez Watkins under 1.5 receptions (-190)

I'm eyeing the Over in this prop because I’m anticipating a close, high-scoring game. Philadelphia hasn’t needed to attack vertically in the postseason, which has resulted in Watkins only receiving one target across the two games.

It’s vital to note that Watkins’ receptions and targets have dipped considerably since Philly tight end Dallas Goedert returned to action in Week 16. Watkins racked up 18 receptions across five games with Goedert sidelined, but the wide receiver only has three catches through five games since.

Still, I’m expecting the KC secondary to have its hands full with Philadelphia’s top weapons, which should provide favorable matchups for Watkins to create seperation. 

Admittedly, I don’t love the bet, but based on my numbers the Over presents a positive expected value of 14%. For comparision, the Under checks out with a negative expected value of 20%.

Verdict: Fade

Patrick Mahomes over 294.5 passing yards (-115)

Betting Unders isn’t a lot of fun, and I’m going against my numbers (-13% EV) here and recommending this bet. As noted, my projections often land on the conservative side, and I’m anticipating this being a high-scoring game.

For the Chiefs to stay competitive, Mahomes will have to air it out, and I’m expecting him to have a strong showing against the rarely tested Philadelphia secondary.

Verdict: Bet

Check out our Patrick Mahomes prop picks.

Jalen Hurts under 238.5 passing yards (-110)

The line movement on Hurts’ passing yards total aligns with the betting action, and I think there’s an opportunity to take advantage of the Over with the number down to 238.5.

My numbers for the Over are right in line with these odds, whereas the Under presents a negative expected value of 13%.

There isn’t a huge advantage fading the masses and betting the Over, but I definitely wouldn’t recommend the Under based on my projection and price.

Verdict: Fade

Super Bowl prop bets

Prop bet enthusiasts have a lot to choose from for Super Bowl 57; here's a look at some of the more popular Super Bowl prop bets across all of the best sportsbooks:

• Super Bowl 57 Roundup
• 57 Prop Bets for Super Bowl 57
• Player Props
• Super Bowl MVP Props
• Touchdown Scorer Props
• Coin Toss Props
• National Anthem Props
• Super Bowl Sack Props
• Opening Kickoff Touchback Props
• Halftime Show Props
• Super Bowl 2024 Odds
• Novelty Props

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Related pages

• Best Super Bowl Betting Promos (U.S. only)