Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 8: Fins Up!

Check out our top predictions for the matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins based on the best NFL odds.

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: October 29, 2023 11:37 AM EDT • 5 minute read

In Week 8, the Miami Dolphins aim to halt the New England Patriots' attempt at securing back-to-back upset victories, and our main prediction for the Patriots vs. Dolphins matchup anticipates Miami's return to their high-scoring form at Hard Rock Stadium. We always shop for the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps when making our NFL picks.

The Miami Dolphins, with a 5-2 record, have tallied 143 points at home and maintain an average margin of victory of 28 points over their last three wins. The Dolphins have shown a consistent willingness to build on their lead whenever the opportunity arises

As the leaders of the AFC East, Miami may continue this trend in Week 8 against the 2-5 New England Patriots, who have lost four straight at Hard Rock Stadium and hold a 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 games.

To accompany our NFL Week 8 predictions and NFL best bets, here is our best Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction

Dolphins -9.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When the Miami Dolphins go up against elite opponents, their explosive offense can get bogged down like it did in last week’s 31-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. But when Miami gets a chance to beat up on seemingly weaker opponents, the Fish have relished the opportunity to do so, hanging 36 points on the Los Angeles Chargers, 70 on the Denver Broncos, 31 on the New York Giants, and 42 on the Carolina Panthers.

At 2-5, the New England Patriots certainly qualify as lesser competition, even after shocking the Buffalo Bills — and most NFL bettors — with a 29-25 upset win last week. Prior to facing the injury-depleted Buffalo defense, Mac Jones and the Patriots had failed to score more than 17 points in five consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints by a combined score of 72-3.

Dolphins fans got a scare this week when league-leading receiver Tyreek Hill missed practice on Wednesday, but the speedster returned the following day and should be good to go. Hill caught a touchdown pass when these teams faced each other earlier this season, a 24-17 victory that improved Miami to 5-1 in the last six meetings between the AFC East rivals.

Finally, the Fins have easily handled New England in each of the last four meetings in Miami, winning all of them by nine or more. They’ve also won 11 of their last 12 home games overall by an average of 13.9 points per game, while the Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins best odds

FanDuel (-9.5 -110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
-9.5	-9.5	-9.5	-9.5	-9.5
-110	-110	-110	-110	-110

I personally bet the Dolphins -9.5 at FanDuel, but you could get that same number at -110 pricing at any of the other top NFL sportsbooks as of Friday morning. However, if any books have moved Miami to a double-digit favorite before you get down on this game, make sure to shop around to get the Dolphins under the semi-key number of 10.

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds analysis

Miami backers are getting a discounted price on the Dolphins following New England’s upset of the Bills, which prompted bookmakers to re-open the Fish as 10.5-point favorites after Miami was as high as -12.5 on the lookahead lines.

Mid-week uncertainty about Hill’s status may explain why the Patriots drew early money, dropping the line down to -8 at some books, but the spread drifted back towards Miami once Hill resumed practicing. The potential absence of the Dolphins’ speedy wideout also saw the total dip briefly from the opener of 47 before setting back on the key number.

Patriots vs. Dolphins game info

When: Sunday, October 29 at 1:00 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
How to watch: CBS
Weather: 85F, 0% chance of precipitation, 11 mph winds

Patriots-Dolphins prediction made Thursday at 8:34 a.m. ET

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Written by:
Connor Cooper

Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.