Panthers vs. Bears Prediction, Picks & Odds Week 10: Thursday Night Football Best Bet
The Thursday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers opens up the NFL's Week 10, and we make our top Panthers vs. Bears prediction for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.
With only one win this season, the Carolina Panthers suffered a 27-13 defeat against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9, marking their fifth loss by a margin of 10 points or more. This loss placed Carolina among the teams with the most double-digit defeats in the league and marked its worst start since 2010. A win against the Chicago Bears could elevate the Panthers, leaving the Arizona Cardinals as the sole one-win team in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Bears are experiencing their poorest season start since 2016, securing just two victories in their first nine games. They faced a 24-17 loss against the New Orleans Saints in Week 9. Backup quarterback Tyson Bagent, who had a successful NFL debut, now confronts consecutive losses.
Make sure to check out our Panthers vs. Bears player props and our Panthers vs. Bears parlay to go along with our best Panthers vs. Bears prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Panthers vs. Bears prediction: Thursday Night Football
Panthers +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Editor's Note: Pick was made before Justin Fields was downgraded to doubtful on Wednesday.
We are making this wager under the assumption that Bears quarterback Justin Fields will not be healthy enough to start on a short week. The narrative surrounding Panthers rookie Bryce Young after Week 9 is how his statistics pale compared to C.J. Stroud’s, who just turned in the greatest performance by a rookie quarterback ever with a record 470 passing yards and five touchdowns.
However, while Young is being ridiculed for throwing two pick-sixes last week (his third game with two-plus interceptions), he has done some good things as well, like joining Justin Herbert as the only quarterback since the merger with 20-plus completions in their first seven NFL games. In addition, Bagent has turnover issues of his own (two touchdowns and four turnovers in his three starts) and is largely responsible for the Bears having a -5 turnover margin for the first time since 2016.
Young has been sacked 14 times over the previous three games, and his wide receivers rank in the bottom five of the league in separation yards. However, the Bears have recorded just one sack over the last three games, even though newly acquired Montez Sweat had the second-best pass rush win rate of any edge rusher last week. However, Chicago’s overall inability to pressure the quarterback is nothing new, as this is now the second time this season the Bears have gone consecutive games without a sack.
This is a three-star play, as Carolina’s defense finally showed some life and held up well in the trenches last week. Indianapolis entered the game ranked ninth in rushing (129.0 yards per game), while Carolina had ranked 29th in rush defense (139.4 yards per game allowed). However, the Panthers held the Colts to 78 yards rushing and 2.6 yards per carry, and playing mistake-free football as they had each of the two weeks prior should lead to Carolina’s first road cover (0-4 ATS) of the season.
For more on this matchup, see Brenden Schaeffer's Bryce Young NFL player props.
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Panthers vs. Bears best odds
BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings (-110)
Panthers backers have their choice of three of our best sports betting apps for the best number (three points and the hook) and the standard price of -110. If we got less than a field goal, we would likely take the moneyline and eschew the point spread odds. However, at anything more than a field goal, taking the points provides the best insurance. We are making this play as we expect positive regression out of the Panthers starting this week, as they are the only team in the NFL not to have covered multiple games this season (1-6-1 ATS, 0-4 ATS on the road).
Panthers vs. Bears odds for Thursday Night Football
Panthers vs. Bears odds analysis
DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 have seen the most significant line movement, opening at -2.5 and getting bet quickly to -3, but the line still pushed through the key number overnight into Monday morning. BetMGM and Caesars opened at -3 but still moved off the key number to -3.5. This line still has plenty of room to fluctuate based on Justin Fields’ availability, but now, 65% of early wagers have backed the favorites.
Our best sports betting sites are split between an O/U of 40 and 40.5 points. FanDuel has seen its line bet down from 40.5 to 40, while DraftKings initially increased its number from 40 to 40.5 before returning to its original number. Overs are 16-10 in Bears games under head coach Matt Eberflus, which, entering last week, was the highest Over percentage of any team during the previous two seasons. There has been dead-even two-way action on the total thus far.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 9 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 52 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph WNW
Panthers-Bears prediction made 11/6/2023 at 10:02 a.m. ET
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