Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions & Opening Odds: Christmas Day NFL Preview

I'm backing Denver (-11.5) early in my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions for Christmas Day.

Mike Spector

Last updated: December 25, 2025 9:03 PM EST • 3 min read

Pictured: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks on as we offer our Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions. Photo by Ron Chenoy via Imagn Images.

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One team in this AFC West rivalry still has plenty to play for as I make my early picks and Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions for Christmas Day. The opening odds have Denver as anywhere from an 11.5 to 13-point favorite ahead of kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday (Prime Video).

With the AFC's top seed in reach, I am backing Denver to cover this large spread on the strength of a dominant defensive performance as part of my NFL Week 17 predictions.

🏈 Early Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 17.

Broncos -11.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Things went from bad to worse for Kansas City last week, losing to a previously two-win Titans team the week after Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL.

Kansas City looked lifeless with season-lows in points (nine) and total yards (133), especially after it lost Gardner Minshew early to a knee injury. So while Denver allowed 30 points last week for the first time since Week 7, I don't expect much from a Chiefs offense led by Chris Oladokun.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site with a point spread less than -12.5, so the full point more of value is worth the steeper -115 odds (53.49% implied probability). A $10 wager would net $8.70 in profit if the Broncos cover.

💡 More Week 17 predictions

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 17.

📊 Live Broncos vs. Chiefs odds: Christmas Day

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 17.

Broncos vs. Chiefs opening odds

Moneyline: Broncos -238 | Chiefs +195
Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-110) | Chiefs +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)

Broncos vs. Chiefs line movement

Denver is currently the only double-digit favorite in Week 17, which is no surprise after Kansas City lost by 17 to one of the NFL’s worst teams.

It would take a combination of sharp and public action to drive this spread to the key number of -14. The Broncos could also take their foot off the gas late with a Week 18 game against the Chargers looming to potentially decide the AFC West and the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

As of this writing, FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 36.5, as the rest of the market is at 37.5. But I expect more sportsbooks to come down to 36.5 as opposed to FanDuel aligning with the rest of the market, given Kansas City’s offensive ineptitude last week.

📈 Broncos vs. Chiefs trends & betting notes: Christmas Day

Kansas City has won nine straight home games against Denver
Bo Nix is 16-2 SU as a favorite and 6-9 SU as an underdog
Kansas City is 1-7 ATS against teams over .500 this season
Andy Reid’s teams are 4-4 SU and ATS with a backup quarterback since 2013

📺 How to watch Broncos vs. Chiefs: Christmas Day

Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
TV: Prime Video

🎁 More NFL expert picks for Christmas Day

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for Christmas Day and more.

Broncos vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown predictions
Broncos vs. Chiefs player props
Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions
Broncos vs. Chiefs same-game parlay
Chris Oladokun player props

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”