Survivor Pool Picks Week 10: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

Week 9 was dubbed as arguably the public bettors’ best of the NFL season to date, as just one upset happened heading into Monday night (Packers over the Patriots), while 12 of the 13 favorites (and all of the top nine) won outright. That should’ve put remaining contestants still making NFL survivor pool picks in a great spot for Week 10.

The Colts and Dolphins have the look of two AFC teams that are playing out the string with three wins between them, but I aim to identify the winner of this week’s matchup to give our readers a huge leg up in survivor pools. I also offer a surging AFC squad as a team to avoid as they play much easier competition down the stretch.

Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 10

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Safest NFL survivor pick: Bills (82%) over Jets

Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 10.

The Jets’ league-worst red zone inefficiency reared its ugly head in the team’s 23-point loss to Kansas City last week, as the team had to settle for four field goals before a non-competitive second half. New York has now lost four straight games and has a 5-21 record under head coach Aaron Glenn. Its 0-8 record in division games under Glenn doesn’t inspire confidence against a Buffalo team that entered last week as the favorite to win the AFC.

Even though this is a matchup where the road team is favored in a divisional game, if anyone saw Metlife Stadium when the Jets played their last against the Raiders, it’s entirely likely that the building is taken over by Bills Mafia.

Best NFL survivor pick: Rams (77.5%) over Cardinals

Arizona comes home after back-to-back road games against the Cowboys and Seahawks. But it has been anything but “home sweet home” for the Cardinals, as their 10-game home losing streak is the longest active home losing streak in the NFL.

Arizona pulled one of the season’s biggest upsets with an 18-16 road win against Los Angeles in Week 6. But the Rams have since won three straight games and are over .500 for the first time this season. 

Perhaps the most encouraging sign is that Myles Garrett is back and healthy and wreaking havoc on the defensive line, as he became the first Rams player with three sacks in a game since 2021 (Aaron Donald). Not to mention, Puka Nacua is healthy and is coming off his 13th game with 10-plus receptions, tied for the most in team history (Cooper Kupp).

NFL survivor strategy pick: Colts (57.5%) over Dolphins

With nine survivor pool picks already made, the pickings are starting to get slim for how to best navigate the rest of the competition. One who correctly identifies the winner of this Dolphins-Colts matchup would give themselves a huge leg up going forward, and I’m backing Indianapolis at home despite it losing 14 of 16 games dating back to last season.

Miami hasn’t exactly inspired confidence with its worst eight-game start since 2021. While there are swirling rumors around a team trading for Daniel Jones, it behooves the quarterback to play well to land in a favorable situation if he is dealt.

Jonathan Taylor may not be suiting up for the Colts anymore, but Indianapolis can build off of a running game that churned out 105 yards last week, including Seth McGowan and his 7.5 yards per carry average.

NFL survivor pick to avoid: Texans (65.8%) over Browns

Houston has won three of four games after starting 0-4, and head coach DeMeco Ryans is just as likely to be as happy about the team’s 44 points scored last week as the defense’s eight sacks. But that came in a domed setting at SoFi Stadium against the league’s only winless team (the Chargers), and I’m not completely giving up on the Browns despite them losing back-to-back games for the first time this year. 

There is clearly a more explosive element to Cleveland’s offense with Shedeur Sanders under center compared to Deshaun Watson. Last week, Sanders completed three of six downfield attempts for 154 yards. Those attempts added a plus-55.5% win probability, a career-high for the signal caller.

Houston plays home to Indianapolis next week (who knows what the Colts roster could look like by then) and still plays home to the Titans. I’d rather use the Texans in one of those spots than take my chances with how their offense looks outdoors against a formidable Browns defense.

Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 10

Week 9 was a great week for Circa Sports contestants, as the lone contestant among the 610 entries who was eliminated selected the Falcons over the Bengals. That leaves 609 entries entering Week 10, with each now valued at $41,079.31.