Michigan State vs. Duke Prediction: College Basketball Picks & Odds (Nov. 10)
My Michigan State vs. Duke prediction looks at the Blue Devils’ 66-60 road win against the Spartans last year and identifies the areas where teams’ defenses have similar advantages over the offense in this early-season meeting in the first game of the Champions Classic.
Tipoff between No. 6 Michigan State and No. 2 Duke is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday at United Center, with Duke favored by 6.5 points and the total set at 149.5. My college basketball picks expect a low-scoring game, in large part because of the size that the Blue Devils trot out on their front line.
Michigan State vs. Duke picks & odds
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Under 149.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
| Jordan Scott Under 9.5 points | -115 via bet365 | 1 unit to profit 0.87 units |
| John Blackwell Under 2.5 3-pointers | -110 via bet365 | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 9 at 9:20 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3 units | Profit if all picks win: 2.69 units
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Michigan State vs. Duke best bet
Under 149.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Duke’s offense should look like a work in progress early in the season as it adjusts to life without a bona fide superstar and top NBA Draft pick like Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer of recent years. 2023 was the last year the Blue Devils didn’t have a “can’t miss” prospect on their roster like those two, and they subsequently finished 40th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Blue Devils erupted for 113 points in their last game against Coastal Carolina, after Army “limited” them to 84 points while using a disruptive zone. That zone forced Duke into 4-of-22 shooting from beyond the arc, and I expect Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad to similarly pack the paint to help defend the Blue Devils’ 7-foot tandem of Patrick Ngongba and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje.
Play to: 148.5 (-110)
Score prediction: Duke 75, Michigan State 71
Michigan State vs. Duke player props
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jordan Scott Under 9.5 points (-115 via bet365)
Duke’s defense in last year’s 66-60 road win at the Breslin Center was absolutely dominant. Michigan State went into that game 65-11 under Izzo over the last four-plus seasons, shooting at least 51% from the 2-point range. But the Blue Devils limited the Spartans to a paltry 29.5% from inside the arc in that game, and they have even more length and shot-blocking potential this year.
Jordan Scott thus far is averaging 11.5 points on 45.5% shooting. But I don’t expect Scott to get anything going inside, and now will likely draw Dame Sarr on defense, who is arguably the best perimeter defender in the country.
Sarr ranked eighth nationally (and first among freshmen) in Defensive RAPM last year, and Scott has struggled shooting from the perimeter, making 27.3% of his 11 3-point attempts.
Play to: 9.5 (-125)
John Blackwell Under 2.5 3-pointers (-110 via bet365)
John Blackwell was Jon Scheyer’s big portal addition that was supposed to provide the biggest scoring punch to help replace Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and others. But thus far Blackwell has averaged just nine points in 22.5 minutes per game, and he won’t eat more into Cayden Boozer’s minutes in the short term if he doesn’t clean up his three turnovers per game.
Blackwell has made three 3-pointers in two games, and drilled 4-of-9 from beyond the arc in his last game against Michigan State (while at Wisconsin). But Tom Izzo’s teams have done well to limit Blackwell outside of that performance, holding him to 1-for-13 from beyond the arc in the other four matchups. And just two years ago, with two of the same starters they have now (Jeremy Fears and Coen Carr), Michigan State ranked second nationally in 3-point defense (28%).
Play to: Under 1.5 (+100)
Live Michigan State vs. Duke odds
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Latest Michigan State vs. Duke injuries
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How to watch Michigan State vs. Duke
- Date: Tuesday, Nov. 10
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center (Chicago, Ill.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
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