Florida vs. Florida State Prediction: College Basketball Picks & Odds (Nov. 10)
My best Florida vs. Florida State prediction highlights how No. 1 Florida's offensive and defensive advantage around the 3-point line will lead to an easy win for the Gators. I also highlight how Urban Klavzar can continue his hot start for the No. 1 team in the country, and then explain why Marcis Ponder is in for his first bad game as a collegiate player.
Florida is favored by 9.5 points ahead of tonight's 6 p.m. ET game at Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Fla. The game will air on ESPN2 and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
Florida vs. Florida State picks & odds
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Florida -9.5 | -105 via BetMGM | 2 units to profit 1.91 units |
| Urban Klavzar Over 8.5 points | -112 via bet365 | 2 units to profit 1.79 units |
| Marcis Ponder Under 6.5 rebounds | +102 via bet365 | 1.5 units to profit 1.53 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 10 at 11:30 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 5.5 units | Profit if all picks win: 5.23 units
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Florida vs. Florida State best bet
Florida -9.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
3-point shooting will be the difference in this game. Florida is shooting 43.1% from deep this season, which ranks 33rd in the country. The Gators have made 11 3-pointers in each of their first two games, including against No. 17 Miami.
Meanwhile, Florida State, despite facing Troy and Florida A&M, ranks 252nd in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing teams to make 35.8% of their attempts. Florida State is shooting just 28.8% from 3-point range, so I don't see how the offense keeps up with Florida, especially with Florida's 3-point defense holding teams to just 26.3% from deep.
Play to: Florida -11.5 at +100. Pass at -12.5.
Score prediction: Florida 82 Florida State 65
Florida vs. Florida State player props
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Urban Klavzar Over 8.5 points (-112 via bet365)
Klavzar has made the second-most 3-pointers for Florida this season, knocking down at least two in every game. However, with the price for him to make at least two set at -155 or more at every major sportsbook, backing him to score nine points is the best way to exploit Florida State's terrible 3-point defense.
Klavzar is averaging 10.5 points per game, and he's scored at least nine in each of his first two contests. He's also shooting 46.7% from the field, and he's managed to get to the free throw line in each game. While he's shooting just 50% from the charity stripe this season, he will eventually improve from there, as he shot 90.3% last season.
Play to: Over 9.5 points at +110. Pass at 10.5.
Marcis Ponder Under 6.5 rebounds (+102 via bet365)
Ponder has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in each of his first two games, but I'm fading the freshman in his first true test. While he dominated down low against Troy and Florida A&M, Florida ranks 27th in opponent defensive rebounding percentage (58.2%) and 44th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage (20.8%).
The Gators also have Rueben Chinyelu, who averaged 11.2 rebounds per game last season. With him down low, Florida's opponent defensive rebounding percentage was just 57%, the second-best mark in the nation last year. Chinyelu is averaging 11 rebounds per game this season, and he grabbed 14 boards against Miami. While two Hurricanes grabbed at least seven rebounds in that game, both played at least 28 minutes. Ponder has yet to play more than 23.
Play to: Under 5.5 rebounds -110
Live Florida vs. Florida State odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Florida vs. Florida State page.
Latest Florida vs. Florida State injuries
Florida:
- None
Florida State:
- None
How to watch Florida vs. Florida State
- Date: Tuesday, Nov. 10
- Tipoff: 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Tucker Center (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN2/ESPN Unlimited
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