Packers vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 7: Will Denver Pull Off the Upset?
Both the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos are aiming to break their two-game losing streaks, and our top predictions for the Packers vs. Broncos matchup expect a strong performance from the home team this Sunday. All our NFL picks are carefully crafted based on the latest NFL odds provided by our best sports betting apps.
Green Bay had a bye week following their last game on Monday night in Week 5, during which they suffered a 17-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Denver marks the Packers' fifth opponent in six games with a .500 or worse record, and Green Bay has a 2-2 record in the previous four contests against such opponents.
Denver is also well-rested after a 19-8 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 6. It was the 16th consecutive defeat against the Chiefs, and the last time Denver emerged victorious against its AFC West rival was in 2015.
To accompany our NFL predictions for Week 7, here is our best Packers-Broncos prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Broncos prediction
Broncos ML (+104 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Green Bay has won the game following its bye week in the last two seasons and is 2-1 against the spread on the road in 2023. All of that, coupled with the fact that the Packers are among the league's most public teams and many view Denver as a contender to end up with the NFL’s worst record, will likely mean Green Bay becomes one of the most heavily bet squads in Week 7.
However, we love being on the contrarian side, especially in a game that sets up as a typical pros vs. joes matchup like this one.
Russell Wilson is coming off his debut Broncos season that featured career lows in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, and QBR (his 36.8 QBR ranked 27th in the NFL). There's a widespread belief his season will again take a turn for the worse after he recorded a 95-yard passing performance against the Chiefs that included throwing two interceptions for the first time in 2023 and posting a season-low 9.8 QBR (his QBR has lowered during four consecutive weeks).
However, Denver’s offense still ranks 15th in passing yards per play (6.50) and fourth in rushing yards per play (4.93). Also, Wilson’s production at home has been more encouraging (13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 107.5 passer rating in his last five games).
Green Bay has played just one team currently over .500, yet the club is still averaging 56.2 fewer yards per game than its opponents (26th in yardage differential), according to Sharp Football Analysis. And the Packers' offense is consistently behind the chains, with over 30% of its possessions including a third-and-long situation (seven-plus yards to gain), the league’s worst rate.
We therefore don't expect the Packers to take advantage of Denver’s league-worst scoring defense (33.3 points per game allowed), especially with Jordan Love completing just 43.8% of his pass attempts that have traveled five-plus air yards over the last two games, according to Warren Sharp. He's also posted a 0-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those situations during that span and -0.41 EPA/attempt.
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Packers vs. Broncos best odds
BetRivers (+104)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| -105 | +100 | -105 | +100 | +100 |
BetRivers trumps all of our best sportsbooks in value as Broncos backers, as it's the only shop offering a line better than +100. Given the opportunity to get plus-money odds while backing the Broncos to win outright, it's an easy decision to forego the one-point that Denver is getting on the spread.
We're only covering ourselves at that point in the rare event that the Broncos suffer a loss of exactly one point. Only take the points with Denver if the line creeps closer to a field goal.
Packers vs. Broncos odds
Packers vs. Broncos odds analysis
FanDuel is alone among our best sports betting sites while offering a point spread of Green Bay -1.5 (-106), as all the other shops are in unison with Packers -1 (at -110 odds). Any line movement has gone in Denver’s direction, as BetMGM has dropped from Packers -1.5 to -1, and DraftKings has moved from -2 to -1. There's been solid two-way action on the spread thus far, with a 53/47 split in favor of Green Bay. Denver is 0-7 against the spread in its last seven games.
All the best live betting sites agree on the current total of 45 points, with -110 odds on either side. Four of our top five sportsbooks (BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365) opened at 44.5 and have ticked up a half point throughout the week to reach 45. Sharp action is likely driving the line movement, as the early splits are 2/1 (67/33) supporting the Under. The Over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games.
Packers vs. Broncos game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 75 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation wind 8-mph easterly winds
Packers-Broncos prediction made 10/18/2023 at 4:19 p.m. ET
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