Colts vs. Jaguars Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 6: Chance for Gardner Minshew to Shine?
This Week 6 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars could prove pivotal in the AFC South standings, and our top Colts vs. Jaguars predictions are calling for a close divisional contest. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Indianapolis Colts snapped a five-game losing streak against the Tennessee Titans with last week’s 23-16 victory. In the process, they also ended a seven-game home losing streak. And, best of all, the win also has the Colts tied for first in the AFC South.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have returned to U.S. soil following a successful two-week stint in London. The Jags went 2-0 across the Atlantic with wins over the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills. This is also the first time Jacksonville is off to a 3-2 start since 2018.
To help with your NFL predictions for Week 6 and to accompany our NFL best bets, here is our best Colts vs. Jaguars prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Colts vs. Jaguars prediction
Colts +4.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recent trends certainly favor the Jaguars in this matchup, as the home team is 11-1 SU in the previous 12 meetings between these teams, and Jacksonville has covered seven of its last eight games against Indianapolis. However, those trends do not reflect the unique position that the Jaguars are in entering this matchup, having played in London the last two weeks.
Eight of the previous 10 teams (including the Atlanta Falcons last week) that opted not to take a bye week after returning from London have seen the Under on their team total cash in their first week back.
Jacksonville did a lot of good things offensively last week, as quarterback Trevor Lawrence had his fifth career game with 300 or more passing yards and zero interceptions, while Travis Etienne became the first Jaguar with 125 or more rushing yards and two touchdowns since Leonard Fournette in 2017. However, Jacksonville’s 29 first downs and 55.6% third-down conversion rate (10-of-18) was largely a product of Buffalo being decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball. In addition, the Jaguars had the distinct advantage of having one extra week to get used to the time difference in London, having played there the week prior.
Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has already been ruled out with an AC joint injury, but backup quarterback Gardner Minshew arguably gives the team the best chance to win.
Minshew turned in the fifth-best passer rating (112.8) of any quarterback in Week 5 in relief of the injured Richardson, and Indianapolis is 3-0 in games he has appeared in, while Minshew has completed 68.7% of his passes and not thrown a single interception.
Minshew is familiar with head coach Shane Steichen’s offensive concepts from his time with the Eagles, and the two will devise a game plan to attack a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. Entering last week, Richardson’s six passes of 20 or more yards downfield were the second-fewest of any quarterback with a minimum of 75 pass attempts, so Jacksonville has a much different offensive scheme to prepare for with Minshew under center than it did in its 31-21 Week 1 win over Indianapolis.
This is a four-star play, as Minshew’s arm should open up things for a running game that just churned out the first player (Zack Moss) with 150+ yards rushing and two touchdowns versus Tennessee since 2014, and now the team has Jonathan Taylor back in the mix.
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Colts vs. Jaguars best odds
BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 -110
Colts backers can find the best value at any of three of our best sports betting sites, as BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 offer the best number available at standard -110 odds.
We would play Indianapolis down to +3.5, so there is some flexibility even if the number drops closer to kickoff. Trevor Lawrence is 18-23 ATS in his career.
Colts vs. Jaguars odds
Colts vs. Jaguars odds analysis
The point spread at FanDuel got as high as -5.5 on Sunday night and at Caesars on Tuesday morning, but each time the number reached that high, Colts backers weighed in and drove the number down.
Even at DraftKings, on the two occasions where the spread has gotten to -5, the next move has always been back in the Colts’ favor. Early spread wagers are more than 2/1 (69/31) in favor of the Jaguars.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total as high as 46.5, as all other competing sportsbooks have an O/U of 45.5. The total hit a low of 45.5 at FanDuel on Monday night, but Over backers drove the line up to 46.5, so it will be interesting to see if the other best sportsbooks follow suit. Sixty-three percent of early wagers have backed the Over.
Five of Indianapolis’ last six road games have gone over the projected total.
Colts vs. Jaguars game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 76 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph WNW
Colts-Jaguars prediction made 10/10/2023 at 4:33 p.m. ET
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