NFL Best Bets Week 7: Will Ravens’ Red-Zone Struggles Continue?

Will the Ravens keep sputtering and needing to settle for field goals? We look at that and more in our NFL best bets for Week 7.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 22, 2023 11:38 AM EDT • 7 minute read

Our NFL best bets for Week 7 face a competitive slate, with six of the 13 games involving teams holding a .500 or better record. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

In Week 6 of the NFL season, the Under bet prevailed in 12 out of 15 games, resulting in a final tally of 12-2-1 due to a single push. Furthermore, 13 of these matchups concluded with a total score of 40 points or fewer. Notably, in nine of these contests, the victorious team managed to score 20 points or less. This occurrence marked only the second time such a scenario unfolded since 1994.

Will the trend of low-scoring games continue, or have oddsmakers made the necessary adjustments, considering that five games now have a total of 40 or lower?

To accompany all of our NFL predictions for Week 7, here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 7 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 7

Tua Tagovailoa longest completion Under 38.5 yards vs. Eagles (-115 via bet365, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Justin Herbert Under 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Chiefs (+105 via BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ravens Under 2.5 team total touchdowns (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Commanders-Giants Under 39.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Week 7 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

NFL predictions for Week 7

Tua Tagovailoa longest completion Under 38.5 yards vs. Eagles (-115 via bet365, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Taking the Under on anything involving the Miami Dolphins is risky given how historic their offensive numbers are through six games. However, Miami has also been feasting on three of the league's six worst defenses in total yards per game allowed, and the Dolphins should get a much tougher test from the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles should take a page from the Buffalo Bills’ playbook when defending Miami’s wide receivers. Tagovailoa completed 79% of his pass attempts when Buffalo put one or both of its outside cornerbacks in press coverage. He also averaged 9.8 yards per attempt while producing a 61 Total QBR.

But Tagovailoa’s completion percentage dropped to 63% against no press coverage and 6.0 yards per attempt with a Total QBR of 13. Thus, look for the Eagles to respect the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and for them to force Miami win with longer drives.

This is still a four-star play despite Tagovailoa ranking second in 50-plus-yard completions over the last two seasons. The Eagles sit 12th in defensive efficiency and should enter with a solid defensive game plan dialed up at home.

While DraftKings offers the same number as bet365 and Caesars for this wager, it features a slightly worse price of -120.

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Justin Herbert Under 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Chiefs (+105 via BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This will be viewed as another contrarian play given Herbert’s success against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Herbert has averaged 297 passing yards per game against Kansas City over the last three seasons with 15 touchdowns to four interceptions. That's led to 25.4 fantasy points per game when facing the Chiefs during his career.

However, we expect a solid performance from a Chiefs defense that ranks second in points per game (14.7), third in Total QBR (42), fifth in defensive efficiency, and is tied for first with an average target separation of 3.0 yards, according to Next Gen Stats.

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Thus, while Herbert has logged two-plus passing touchdowns in five of six games versus the Chiefs, this matchup shouldn't be as much of a shootout as prior meetings due to Kansas City’s own offensive struggles. The Chiefs have also pressured quarterbacks on 30% of dropbacks (16th), and they're allowing the ninth-lowest third-down conversion rate (36%), which makes us confident they can keep Herbert from throwing two-plus touchdown passes.

Bettors can pick from three of our best sports betting sites to find plus-money odds for this wager that are more appealing than the -103 and -118 prices at Caesars and FanDuel, respectively.

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Ravens Under 2.5 team total touchdowns vs. Lions (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Baltimore Ravens get the unenvious task of facing a Detroit Lions team that's recorded four straight 14-plus-point victories, and doing it the week after returning from London. This wager is largely tied to Baltimore’s red-zone struggles, though the Ravens are also one of four teams without an offensive touchdown from outside the red zone, according to Sharp Football Analysis.

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The Ravens ranked first in points per drive that entered the red zone over the first four weeks (6.1), first in touchdown percentage (80%), and they scored 12 touchdowns to two field goals. But Baltimore has since scored just 3.4 points per drive over its last two games and a touchdown just 22% of the time (two touchdowns to six field goals).

The Ravens scored one touchdown on six red-zone possessions in Week 6, and they're tied for 24th in touchdown percentage on goal-to-go drives (58%).

While DraftKings charges a price of -125 and bet365 is at -120 to back this Under, Caesars is our go-to shop as the only shop not juiced to that side of the total.

Commanders-Giants Under 39.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: This total has now moved to 37.5 at all of our best live betting sites.

The Washington Commanders and New York Giants each rank 27th or worse in total defense and 28th or worse in points per drive allowed. But this low total still makes sense, as neither team boasts the offensive talent to take advantage of those defensive deficiencies.

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The Giants haven't scored an offensive touchdown in the first half during any of their six games, and they've gone 35 consecutive possessions without a touchdown. On the other side, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell may break the record for most sacks taken in a season, and Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is one of the most blitz-happy play-callers. The Giants blitz at the fourth-highest rate (38.3%).

This is a four-star play, as four of Howell’s six interceptions have come when pressured, and he averages just 6.1 yards per attempt (26th) when blitzed. That lowers the ceiling on Washington’s big-play ability.

We don't mind paying extra in juice at FanDuel, as it's the only shop offering a total of 39.5, while the rest of its competitors are at 39.

NFL best bets made 10/19/2023 at 4:13 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”