NFL Week 1 Against the Spread Picks for Every Game
The quest to secure the Lombardi Trophy begins as every NFL team enters the 2024 campaign with a blank slate and high hopes.
We offer our NFL Week 1 ATS picks for every game while providing more in-depth analysis for three featured contests.
So, which of the Super Bowl odds favorites will make a statement, and how many underdogs will turn some heads?
While our NFL predictions for Week 1 dive comprehensively into the marquee games, our ATS picks highlight which teams you should back to cover the spread.
NFL ATS picks Week 1: Every game
NFL odds via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Chiefs (-3) | Chiefs (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers vs. Eagles (-2) | Eagles (-2) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Bengals (-8.5) | Bengals (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals vs. Bills (-6.5) | Bills (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars vs. Dolphins (-3.5) | Dolphins (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans (-3) vs. Colts | Texans (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Bears (-3.5) | Bears (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers vs. Falcons (-3.5) | Falcons (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. Saints (-3.5) | Saints (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings (-2) vs. Giants | Vikings (-2) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos vs. Seahawks (-6) | Seahawks (-6) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Raiders vs. Chargers (-3) | Raiders (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Browns (-2.5) | Browns (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Commanders vs. Buccaneers (-3.5) | Buccaneers (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams vs. Lions (-3.5) | Lions (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. 49ers (-4.5) | Jets (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Thursday.
Cowboys vs. Browns (-2.5)
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
I'm going with the Cleveland Browns despite Deshaun Watson's inadequacies and seemingly perpetually subpar play. The Browns were 8-1 ATS at the Dawg Pound last season and enjoyed a winning margin of 12.6 points.
The Dallas Cowboys endured a woeful preseason off the field.
Their running game won't scare anyone; they'll start two rookies on the offensive line and their secondary will be without All-Pro DaRon Bland.
The Cowboys were 4-5 ATS on the road last season, with all their victories against non-playoff teams.
In addition, Dallas is 0-5 in its last five games as an underdog.
New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. additional winnings $2.5K per token. Tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. Full terms.
Texans (-3) vs. Colts
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.28%
A few factors are too compelling to ignore when the Houston Texans open their season in Indianapolis against the Colts. The Texans were 5-3 ATS on the road in 2023 and allowed only 6.2 first-half points per game, the second-fewest.
Houston gelled throughout last season, building the sort of chemistry a mad scientist would be proud of.
Not only did the Texans play as a well-oiled machine, but they had one of the league's best offseasons, adding Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter - who's among the Defensive Player of the Year odds favorites - and running back Joe Mixon.
Who knows what to expect out of the gate from Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, who are yet to play a regular season game together. They must prove they can build cohesiveness like the Texans did last year.
Finally, the Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in season openers.
Terms and conditions apply.
Cardinals vs. Bills (-6.5)
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
While both teams have seen major personnel changes, the Buffalo Bills are better situated at home to enjoy a solid season opener.
The Cardinals were last in defensive DVOA last season and had the worst overall defense, according to PFF. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. should form an explosive and dynamic duo, but finding a simpatico rhythm might take some time.
Arizona had the third-fewest sacks last season (33) and should struggle to put pressure on Josh Allen. Plus, the Cardinals lost BJ Ojulari, one of their best pass rushers, to a season-ending injury.
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
NFL betting odds pages
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
