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Aaron Rodgers MNF Player Prop Bets: Monday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 9, 2024 7:00 AM EDT • 3 min 50 sec read.

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers during last season's opener as we look at our Aaron Rodgers MNF Player Props for Jets vs. 49ers.
New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers during last season's opener. Photo by: Danielle Parhizkaran/USA TODAY Network.

New York Jets fans have waited a year to see a healthy Aaron Rodgers lead the team under center. They'll finally get that chance tonight, but they're still sizable underdogs by the Monday Night Football odds against the San Francisco 49ers.

In many ways, this feels like Rodgers’ Jets debut after he was hurt after just four snaps in last year’s season opener. My Aaron Rodgers MNF player props, based on our best sports betting sites, examine whether the quarterback can shake off the rust and live up to the hype of him topping the Comeback Player of the Year odds leaderboard with +140 odds at DraftKings.

Rodgers is also 34 passing touchdowns away from passing Brett Favre for fourth on the all-time list, but read on to find out how many I project him for tonight as part of our NFL Week 1 predictions and to accompany my Jets vs. 49ers prediction.

Aaron Rodgers prop predictions for Monday Night Football

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Aaron Rodgers player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.

Aaron Rodgers to have the most passing yards (+106) ⭐⭐⭐

Rodgers faces stiff competition to outduel Brock Purdy for the most passing yards among the two quarterbacks, as Purdy led the league in QBR, yards per attempt, and yards per completion last year.

However, the Jets' defense also led the NFL in yards per play and finished second in passing yards per game allowed (168.3) last year. I trust New York’s revamped offensive line after ranking 30th in Pass Block Win Rate last year to give Rodgers enough time to attack San Francisco’s secondary and for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to let Rodgers air it out often.

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Our Jets vs. 49ers MNF prop bets have some thoughts on these signal-callers, too.

At bet365, both Purdy and Rodgers have identical O/Us for their passing yard totals (233.5), so any plus-money odds one can find are a good value for the four-time MVP to win this matchup.

A $10 winning wager would return $10.60 in profits. 

Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.54%

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Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Rodgers is a great value play to end with the most passing yards, that does not mean he will light up the scoreboard via the air. The 49ers allowed the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season.

San Francisco’s defense also started strong out of the gate last year, allowing two or fewer passing touchdowns in five of the first six games. And while offseason acquisition Mike Williams may develop into Rodgers’ best red zone target (he also leads the NFL with 15.9 yards per reception over the last five seasons), he should also be on a snap count in his first game back from an ACL tear.

This Under is juiced as high as -150 at BetMGM, so the best value is at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $17.14.

Best odds: -140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 58.33%

Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

In Rodgers’ last full season in 2022, he ranked outside the top 25 in yards per attempt. Couple that with the 49ers allowing the fifth-lowest yards per attempt last season, and Rodgers is not likely to take many risks downfield.

San Francisco did tie for the league lead with 22 interceptions last year, but Rodgers led the league for four straight years in interception percentage from 2018-21. And in what was considered a down year in 2022, his 2.2% interception percentage was not even in the worst four rates of his career.

The implied probability for Rodgers to go without an interception is as high as 53.49% based on Caesars’ -115 odds, so I am making a $10 wager at DraftKings’ -110 odds in the hopes of returning a $19.09 payout.

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Jets vs. 49ers odds

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Jets vs. 49ers
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 84 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NW
  • Favorite: 49ers (-200 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL MVP OddsNFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Offensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Playoff OddsNFL Draft Odds

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”