NFL Survivor Picks Week 7: Vegas Always Wins, Right?
Betting analyst Neil Parker from Sportsbook Review is choosing the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers, and he is also revealing the rest of his top NFL survivor picks for Week 7. He always consults the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Welcome to Week 7.
If you're fortunate enough to have the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, or San Francisco 49ers as options, this weekend should be considerably less stressful in survivor pools, unlike those who must advance without the luxury of relying on these substantial favorites.
Nevertheless, I've managed to stay in the game by adopting a conservative strategy for five out of the first six weeks. This week, however, presents a challenge with six teams on a bye. Consequently, the team with the widest point spread available to me is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City hosts the AFC West-rival Los Angeles Chargers, but despite it being only Week 7, this is more or less a must-win game for the Bolts. I have the Chiefs ranked No. 4, but I’m not sure I could live with picking them and then losing. Kansas City's offense has looked so ordinary in the early season, and Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert has left Arrowhead Stadium victorious in two of his three visits.
I have been flip-flopping between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders all week. One of my entries in a contest was due before Thursday Night Football, and I went with Green Bay.
It’ll be the Raiders in the rest of my contests. Backup quarterback Brian Hoyer and all. The line movement across our best sportsbook has been in the Vegas direction, and I’m comfortable bowing out if the Chicago Bears win with Justin Fields (thumb) watching from the sideline.
Survivor contests are the most difficult, simple pool I’ve ever been in. So, if there was ever a week to be flexible and willing to pivot, this is it.
Here are our NFL survivor picks for Week 7 to accompany all of our NFL Week 7 predictions and NFL best bets.
Survivor picks NFL Week 7: Rankings
(NFL Week 7 odds via bet365 as of Oct. 18)
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | at Patriots | -8.5 | -400 | 80.00% |
| 2 | Seahawks | vs. Cardinals | -8 | -380 | 79.16% |
| 3 | 49ers | at Vikings | -7 | -305 | 75.31% |
| 4 | Chiefs | vs. Chargers | -5.5 | -240 | 70.59% |
| 5 | Raiders | at Bears | -3 | -160 | 61.54% |
| 6 | Rams | vs. Steelers | -3 | -165 | 62.26% |
| 7 | Ravens | vs. Lions | -3 | -160 | 61.54% |
| 8 | Packers | at Broncos | -1 | -120 | 54.55% |
| 9 | Eagles | vs. Dolphins | -2 | -130 | 56.52% |
| 10 | Buccaneers | vs. Falcons | -2.5 | -140 | 58.33% |
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Survivor picks NFL Week 7
4. Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
I could ultimately go with the Chiefs in my survivor pools in Week 7. Putting your contests in the hands of one of the NFL MVP favorites isn’t a bad option, after all. Additionally, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes benefit from extra rest and preparation time after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, while the Chargers are on a short week after losing to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.
1. Bills (at Patriots)
Buffalo hasn’t looked the part in consecutive games. The Bills lost 25-20 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London in Week 5 and nearly lost to the dismal New York Giants in Week 6.
But the New England Patriots look lost, and these teams have a huge talent gap. I’m expecting the Bills to be far too much for the Pats to handle on both sides of the ball, and there’s already been line movement in the Buffalo direction at several of our best sports betting sites.
Survivor picks NFL Week 7: Fade
2. Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)
By all means, you can take the Seahawks confidently in Week 7, and especially if you don’t have another team available that you’re comfortable backing.
Here’s the thing, though …
At this stage of survivor contests most poolies have already used the Bills, 49ers, and Chiefs. So, if Seattle were to fall victim to a home upset at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals, I would bet approximately half of your remaining pool would be eliminated.
If nothing else, pivoting off Seattle is something to sleep on.
Survivor picks NFL Week 7: My pick
5. Raiders (at Bears)
The Chicago Bears are already positioned to have the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, and now No. 1 quarterback Justin Fields won't play Sunday due to a right thumb injury. The issue with the Las Vegas Raiders is that they're also without their starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (back) this week.
Vegas backup Brian Hoyer is expected to start.
It’s obviously not ideal, and even with Hoyer’s last win coming all the way back in 2016, I still value his experience against a bad Chicago defense. Additionally, the Bears are turning to Tyson Bagent behind center, and I expect the Vegas pass rush to give him fits all afternoon.
8. Packers (at Broncos)
I’m probably going to end up going with the Green Bay Packers in survivor this week. They’re coming off a bye, and I expect a number of impact starters returning to action on both sides of the ball.
A lot of attention will be paid to running back Aaron Jones (hamstring), but I’m actually more concerned with cornerback Eric Stokes (foot), free safety Darnell Savage (calf) and linebackers Quay Walker (knee) and De'Vondre Campbell (ankle).
Campbell was the only one of the four defenders who didn’t participate in practice Wednesday. The other three are all first-round draft picks who can properly slot back into a meaningful role Sunday.
The Denver Broncos are in a free fall with a doormat defense, so as long as Green Bay can limit the Denver offense, I'm confident in head coach Matt LaFleur having a game plan in place to put points on the board. Finally, I don't expect Green Bay to be a popular pick this week.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens ✅ | Buffalo Bills ✅ | Seattle Seahawks ✅ | San Francisco 49ers ✅ | Detroit Lions ✅ |
| Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins ✅ | Las Vegas Raiders* |
* I used the Green Bay Packers in one contest because of an early deadline.
Circa Survivor picks NFL Week 7
Here are the Week 7 picks for the Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest. As expected the Seahawks are the most selected team.
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