NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 5: Bengals’ Struggles Continue in Arizona

Our NFL upset picks see the Cincinnati Bengals failing to live up to the best NFL odds once again.

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: October 8, 2023 11:10 AM EDT • 6 minute read

The Cincinnati Bengals have had a challenging start to the season, making them one of our three NFL upset picks for Week 5, based on the most favorable NFL odds provided by our best sports betting apps.

While teams like the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, and New York Giants have also fallen short of preseason expectations, none have experienced a more disappointing start than the 1-3 Bengals.

Despite being among the preseason favorites for the Super Bowl, quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals have lost three of their first four games, scoring only three points in two of those losses.

We anticipate Cincinnati's early season struggles to persist when they face the Arizona Cardinals, a team that has exceeded many expectations.

Here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 5 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+210 via bet365) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐⭐
Pittsburgh Steelers (+170 via Caesars) vs. Baltimore Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Arizona Cardinals (+142 via FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Bengals ⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars ML vs. Buffalo Bills (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Buffalo is the toast of the league following last week’s 48-20 beatdown of the Dolphins, the Bills’ third straight victory by four touchdowns or more. But this week’s contest with the Jags in London could be a tricky spot for Buffalo, playing overseas following a statement win and potentially without two starters in its secondary.

Jacksonville is no stranger to international contests, not only playing in Europe for a league-high 11th time but also for the second straight week. Not having to travel should be a huge advantage for the Jaguars as they look to build on Sunday’s 23-7 victory over the Falcons, the third time in four games Jacksonville has held an opponent to 21 points or fewer. One of those games was against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, a game in which the Jags had a chance to tie the score in the final minutes.

Jacksonville stunned the Bills as two-touchdown underdogs just two years ago. Stepping in front of Josh Allen and this hot Bills attack requires a leap of faith, but at this fat price, we’ll take a shot.

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Pittsburgh Steelers ML vs. Baltimore Ravens (+170 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even after 16 seasons on the Steelers’ sideline, Mike Tomlin knows how to get his team’s attention. Expect a strong response from Pittsburgh after Tomlin questioned the Steelers’ level of physicality and toughness in last week’s 30-6 loss at Houston.

Tomlin promised significant changes going forward, including padded practices this week. The team could also start Mitch Trubisky in favor of the struggling Kenny Pickett at quarterback, especially with Pickett dealing with a bone bruise in his leg.

Baltimore took advantage of Deshaun Watson’s absence last week to easily handle the Browns 28-3, the Ravens’ second road win over an AFC North rival in three weeks. However, the Ravens are still dealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball, and they’ve won just six of their last 11 games as a road favorite.

Catching more than a field goal with a Steelers team that is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog is a safer way to play a game that could come down to the final possession, but the +175 return on the moneyline is a risk worth taking. In those last 10 games as a home dog, the Steelers have pulled off the outright upset six times.

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Arizona Cardinals ML vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

At the start of the season, nobody would have expected Cincinnati to be just a field-goal favorite at Arizona in this Week 5 matchup. The Bengals entered the campaign as one of the Super Bowl favorites in the AFC, while the Cards were being accused of tanking after jettisoning some of their top talent during the offseason.

However, the line movement at the best sports betting sites for this game — Cincy was an 8.5-point favorite on the lookahead line, re-opened as 4.5-point chalk and quickly plummeted down to -3 — tells us everything we need to know about the current realities of these teams. The Bengals are 1-3 and have been held to a field goal in two of their first four games as Joe Burrow is clearly hindered by his calf injury. Arizona was a last-second drop away from covering last week for the fourth time in as many games.

Much of the value on the Cardinals is already gone, which is why we’ll limit this to a 3-star play, but there’s still enough meat on the bone to back Arizona to add to the Bengals’ early-season woes.

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NFL upset picks made 10/04/2023 at 9:45 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Connor Cooper

Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.