NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 10: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
It was nearly impossible to pick an upset in the NFL last week with favorites winning all but one of the 15 games, but that has us believing that the 'dogs will be barking this week. Our NFL upset picks and predictions for Week 10 highlight our favorites.
- Not only did favorites go 14-1 straight-up last week, but they also covered the spread in 10 of the 15 games
- Four of the 14 games in Week 10 have a point spread of a field goal or less according to our NFL Week 10 odds
- Two first-place AFC teams (the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans) are underdogs this week
As part of our Week 10 NFL predictions, we back a division leader lined as an underdog against a rookie quarterback, and we expect another ‘dog to play inspired in its first game under a new head coach against a division rival.
NFL underdogs to back: Week 10
NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Jaguars (+176 via FanDuel) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐
- Saints (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Falcons ⭐⭐⭐
- Steelers (+126 via FanDuel) at Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Week 10 upset predictions
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jaguars (+176) ⭐⭐⭐
The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost eight straight road games (including their "road game" in London) and are 3-12 in their last 15 overall. But I am still taking a flier on them to beat the Minnesota Vikings, as they showed optimism and fight after clawing out of a 22-0 hole at the Philadelphia Eagles last week and gave themselves a chance to win in the final two minutes.
If Jacksonville can avoid another slow start, it should be a team to reckon with.
The Jaguars rank 31st in average yards (43.6) and are converting just one out of every four third-downs in the first quarters of games this year. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense was not clicking on all cylinders last week, as it was held scoreless in the first half of a home game for the first time since Week 15 of 2022.
There is a big 11-cent gap between FanDuel’s +176 odds and BetMGM’s +165 moneyline odds on the low end of the market. With FanDuel’s generous offering, a $10 wager would net $17.60 in profits if Jacksonville pulls the upset.
Best odds: +176 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 36.23%
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Saints (+150) ⭐⭐⭐
The New Orleans Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen, who went 18-25 in his short tenure. But in-season coaching changes have proven to instantly galvanize certain teams.
The Saints became the 40th team since 2003 to fire their head coach mid-season, and the previous 39 went 17-22 SU and 22-17 ATS in their next game.
New Orleans has been a train wreck since a 2-0 start, going 0-7 while being outscored by an average of 28.6 to 16.6 and being outgained by 95.7 yards per game.
The Saints face Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, who has the third-most passing yards (2,328) and touchdowns (17) in the league. However, New Orleans is 2-0 with a +34 point differential in its last two home games against Atlanta, and oddsmakers are giving it more than a puncher’s chance with this low spread.
Our best sports betting apps are closely aligned, with BetMGM giving the Saints a 40.82% implied probability to pull the upset (+145 odds).
Best odds: +150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40.00%
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Steelers (+126) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Giving Mike Tomlin an extra week to prepare usually does not bode well for his opponents, as his Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-0 straight-up off bye weeks since 2018.
The Steelers benefit from the extra days off just in time to prepare for Washington Commanders rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league.
Not taking away anything from Daniels’ start while leading the Commanders to their best record through nine games (7-2) since 1996, but the Chicago Bears are the only top-14 defense in terms of points per game allowed that Washington has faced this season. Chicago held Washington to a season-low 18 points (with their only touchdown coming on a last-second Hail Mary).
Pittsburgh ranks second in the league, allowing 14.9 points per game. The Steelers offense has also gelled considerably with Russell Wilson under center, as they rank in the top five of the league in his starts in points per game (31.5), yards per game (417.5), and yards per attempt (9.5).
This should be more of a coin-flip game instead of the Steelers only being given a 44.25% chance to pull the upset based on FanDuel’s +126 odds.
Best odds: +126 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.25%
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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