Super Bow Predictions for Longest Plays: Prop Picks for Longest Pass, Rush, Reception
We're making our Super Bowl predictions for the longest plays of the Big Game based on the best NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites before the Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Who doesn't love a big play in the Big Game? We could be in store for plenty of those on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers square off in Super Bowl 2024, which is set to kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
As we've laid out in our Super Bowl predictions, the 49ers are the betting favorites by our Super Bowl odds because of their star-studded offense, which was the NFL's most efficient unit in the regular season. Yet Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the favorite by our Super Bowl MVP odds and is playing the best football of his career.
These offenses are both an explosive play waiting to happen, which is what makes this such an exciting year to find value in our Super Bowl player props. One way to do that is with the longest plays market, which is similar to our Super Bowl game leader predictions but takes only one play to cash.
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl prop bet odds, here are our best Super Bowl longest plays predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence for NFL picks based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Super Bowl longest plays predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Brock Purdy longest pass completion (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Isiah Pacheco longest rush (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Elijah Mitchell longest rush (+6000 via DraftKings) ⭐
- Brandon Aiyuk longest reception (+400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Watson longest reception (+2000 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Kadarius Toney longest reception (+7500 via DraftKings) ⭐
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Longest pass prediction
Who will have the longest pass completion of Super Bowl 58?
Longest pass completion pick, analysis
This is a trickier wager to handicap than it might seem at first glance, especially with Purdy dealing as the favorite in this market.
Mahomes is the more talented quarterback of the two, and he led the league in passing attempts per game (37.3) in the regular season. He's also making his fourth start in the Super Bowl on Sunday, which would seemingly give him the edge in just about any passing market when looking at our passing props.
He didn't complete a pass beyond 27 yards in either of his last two title games, though, as we discussed when ranking Mahomes' best Super Bowl appearances. He has also shown a willingness to attack the short passing game against zone defense, which the 49ers run at the fourth-highest rate (63%) in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Purdy led the league in yards per attempt (9.6) and per completion (13.9), and he's completed a pass of at least 50 yards in three of his last six starts. I have my concerns about Purdy's overall effectiveness in his Super Bowl debut, but I do expect him to connect on a deep pass or two on Sunday.
We further discussed the battle between these two passers in our Purdy vs. Mahomes NFL player props.
Prediction: Brock Purdy (-130 via bet365)
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Longest rush predictions
Who will have the longest rush of Super Bowl 58?
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | -150 | +100 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +250 | +250 |
| Deebo Samuel | +1000 | +950 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1000 | +600 |
| Brock Purdy | +2200 | +1300 |
| Kadarius Toney | +2500 | +4000 |
| Jordan Mason | +3500 | OFF |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +5500 | +2800 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +5500 | OFF |
| Elijah Mitchell | +6000 | +1400 |
Longest rush picks, analysis
On paper, this is a two-man race between McCaffrey and Pacheco, each of whom handle the lion's share of carries for their respective teams.
Between the two, McCaffrey is the more explosive rusher after leading all running backs in yards per carry (5.4) and first downs (83) in the regular season. He's also tallied 22 carries of 15-plus yards entering Sunday, five more than any other NFL back.
That said, Pacheco ranked sixth in breakaway runs (13) and faces a much easier matchup against this leaky 49ers front that struggles to contain runs to the outside. That isn't his forte, but it takes only one for him to cash at this plus-money price.
I also have my eye on Elijah Mitchell, whom I highlighted with this exact prop in my favorite Super Bowl long-shot bets.
The former sixth-round pick started for this team in 2021 and still has the 4.3-speed to break one loose if given the chance - especially if McCaffrey isn't as healthy as the 49ers let on after his injury late in the NFC Championship.
Be sure to check out our rushing props and our look at the best Isiah Pacheco NFL player props.
Predictions: Isiah Pacheco (+250 via FanDuel), Elijah Mitchell (+6000 via DraftKings)
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Longest reception predictions
Who will have the longest reception of Super Bowl 58?
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | +360 | +380 | +400 |
| Rashee Rice | +450 | +370 | +450 |
| George Kittle | +500 | +700 | +650 |
| Travis Kelce | +500 | +700 | +500 |
| Deebo Samuel | +550 | +600 | +500 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +1000 | +800 | +800 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1200 | +1300 | +1600 |
| Justin Watson | +1500 | +950 | +2000 |
| Skyy Moore | +2200 | OFF | OFF |
| Noah Gray | +2800 | +4000 | +2800 |
Longest reception picks, analysis
The longest reception of Super Bowl 58 will double as the game's longest completion, so naturally those bets are correlated to some degree. The better values in this market are mostly on the Chiefs' side, though, even if we like the 49ers' chances of producing the biggest pass play more in a general sense.
Brandon Aiyuk is a key reason why after breaking out as an All-Pro receiver in 2023. The fourth-year wideout ranked second in the NFL in yards per reception (17.9) and per target (12.8) in the regular season, and he ranks third in success rate (70.5%) and yards per route run (2.91) among qualified receivers.
He also faces a difficult matchup against star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who has built his reputation on shutting down No. 1 receivers. I still think Aiyuk is worth the wager at +400 odds via bet365 to break through at least once, but that matchup has us looking further down the board for a complementary bet in this market.
Only four receivers in this matchup have more than 10 catches of at least 20 yards this season. Three of them (Aiyuk, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel) have +600 odds or shorter across our best sportsbooks. The fourth is Justin Watson, who has seen 22 targets at least 20 yards downfield - tied for 23rd-most in the NFL and just two fewer than Aiyuk (24) entering Sunday.
If you're looking for an ultra-long shot, Kadarius Toney is dealing at +7500 odds via DraftKings to record the longest reception of Super Bowl 58. He might not even play on Sunday and has endured a turbulent season, to put it mildly, but the former first-rounder still has the game-breaking speed to justify a bet at such long odds.
We went further into many of these players in our receiving props, as well as our Brandon Aiyuk NFL player props.
Predictions: Brandon Aiyuk (+400 via bet365), Justin Watson (+2000 via bet365), Kadarius Toney (+7500 via DraftKings)
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Super Bowl longest plays prop picks made Thursday at 3:45 a.m. ET.
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