Super Bowl Game Leader Predictions, Odds: Prop Bets for Top Performers in Key Stats
We're making our best Super Bowl game leader prop bet predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites before the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
It's hard to truly break through as a long shot in the Super Bowl game leaders market, and that remains true ahead of this year's Big Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) and Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) are both recognized as true workhorses for their respective teams, while the top receivers on each team are well established. That leaves just four or five players in contention in this market, and the latest Super Bowl odds in the market reflect this accordingly.
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Super Bowl game leader prop predictions for 49ers vs. Chiefs (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Super Bowl game leader prop predictions
- Rushing yards leader: Isiah Pacheco (+170 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Receiving yards leader: Deebo Samuel (+450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Receptions leader: Travis Kelce (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Who'll lead the Super Bowl in rushing yards?
Isiah Pacheco (+170 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Neither the Chiefs nor the 49ers operate a split backfield, so the leading rusher for this game will be McCaffrey or Pacheco. While McCaffrey is the better back and led the league in rushing yards this season, Pacheco has the more favorable matchup in this game.
The 49ers’ run defense has not been very good of late. They gave up 182 yards to the Detroit Lions last weekend. The Chiefs have shown a willingness to feed Pacheco even if it doesn’t always work out. He had 24 carries for just 68 yards in the AFC Championship Game.
The 49ers are giving up 4.3 yards per rush this season. No matter which team takes the lead, both teams will continue to use their run game throughout the contest. Getting solid odds for the player with the better matchup is too good of a value to pass up.
We dove further into Pacheco's outlook on Sunday in our Isiah Pacheco NFL player props and other rushing props.
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Who'll lead the Super Bowl in receiving yards?
Deebo Samuel (+450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Of all the game leader props, this one is the most interesting. Brandon Aiyuk is favored at some sportsbooks, while Travis Kelce is favored at others. They each finish first and second at our best sportsbooks. But down in fourth place at most sportsbooks is Samuel, the 49ers’ third-leading receiver this year.
Samuel was injured in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers, so his stats aren’t worth looking at for that game. But he did finish with eight catches for 89 yards against the Lions.
The Chiefs have a better secondary than the 49ers, so there is value in taking a Kansas City pass-catcher to finish as the game leader. However, Kelce and Rashee Rice are the only two players that could lead the way for the Chiefs, and they’re both being a little overvalued. On the other hand, Samuel will be very involved in the offensive scheme for the 49ers and could be favored in this category.
You can read more about the Niners star with our Deebo Samuel NFL player props and other receiving props.
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Who'll lead the Super Bowl in receptions?
Travis Kelce (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
By his standards, Kelce did not have a good regular season. Yet, he still finished with 93 receptions, which is 14 more than the next leading catcher in this game. In the postseason, things have only gotten better for Kelce. He has 23 catches in three games and 11 in the AFC Championship Game.
There is a minor concern that the 49ers’ linebackers will make things difficult for Kelce on Sunday. However, he and Patrick Mahomes are clicking right now, and it doesn’t make sense to take a risk on someone else in this game.
Aiyuk and Samuel both come in at +450 or higher, but they could split their receptions evenly in this game. Even if they don’t, it’s hard to predict which will be targeted more, and they’re both big play options. Kelce is consistent, and though the price isn’t great, this is the best game-leader bet of the Super Bowl.
Be sure to check out our full breakdown of the best Travis Kelce NFL player props.
Super Bowl game leader prop picks made Wednesday at 11:40 a.m. ET.
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