Saints vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5: Saints’ Ceiling Limited With Carr?
Both the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots are looking to bounce back from tough Week 4 losses, as we prepare you for the action with our top Saints vs. Patriots predictions based on the NFL odds form our best sports betting apps.
The 2-2 New Orleans Saints lost 26-9 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, and it was the first time the New Orleans defense allowed more than 20 points in 11 games dating back to Week 9 last season.
It was a tough game for the New England Patriots, too. The Pats lost 38-3 to the Dallas Cowboys, and head coach Bill Belichick is now off to a 1-3 start for the third consecutive season.
Here is our best Saints vs. Patriots prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saints vs. Patriots prediction
Under 40 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Under may not be as popular of a play as it usually would be in a game between these two teams, especially with how banged up the Patriots are on the defensive side of the ball.
Matthew Judon is out indefinitely with a torn biceps, and the team will miss his ability to rush the passer, as he has four sacks through four games after recording 15.5 sacks last year. In addition, New England’s top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, is also out indefinitely with a shoulder injury.
However, Saints quarterback Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury of his own two weeks ago, and it appeared to hamper him last week, which has us doubting New Orleans’ abilities to take advantage of the Patriots being without two top defenders.
Carr’s 3.4 yards per pass attempt last week were his second-fewest in a game in his career, and his 0.5 air yards per completed pass against Tampa Bay were the fewest by a quarterback in a game this season, per Sharp Football Analysis.
Head coach Dennis Allen did not feel comfortable allowing Carr to push the ball downfield, as nearly 61% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage (no other quarterback had a higher rate in any game this season). That plan led to New Orleans’ second game in the Dennis Allen era without scoring a touchdown.
On the other side, Patriots signal caller Mac Jones was benched in the third quarter last week after six consecutive drives consisting of three turnovers and three three-and-outs. Jones went 12-for-21 with 150 yards, two interceptions, and a fumble lost, and is now 7-11 in 18 starts with a 19-15 TD-INT ratio since 2022.
If Jones and the Patriots offense do not get off to a fast start, look for the Foxborough crowd to start clamoring for Bailey Zappe to enter the game. But Jones does not have a high ceiling, considering he is protected by the worst pass-blocking unit in the league.
This is a four-star play, as cooler weather should play a part in keeping the scoring down, while both teams also rank 28th or worse in points scored per drive.
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Saints vs. Patriots best odds
DraftKings (-108)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Under (-108) | Under (-112) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
All of the best sports betting sites are in unison with the 40-point total, but DraftKings gets the nod as our go-to shop as it is the only place bettors can back the Under at lower than standard -110 odds.
The Under is 10-0 in New Orleans’ last 10 games, so we would be comfortable playing this number as low as 38.5.
Saints vs. Patriots odds
Saints vs. Patriots odds analysis
Within the first hour of opening on Sunday night, the total at FanDuel dropped from 40 to 39. However, Over backers weighed in at that low number and drove the total up to 40.5 before it settled back in at 40. Caesars and DraftKings also hit highs of 40.5 earlier this week. Early betting splits are nearly 2/1 (64/36) in favor of the Under.
New England is unanimously a -1.5 point favorite at all the best sportsbooks, with FanDuel the only one juiced lower at -105 to lay the points. FanDuel was the only sportsbook to get to -2 at one point this week, while the line at DraftKings briefly dipped to -1 on Sunday night before ticking up a half-point and remaining firm at -1.5.
New England is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games.
Saints vs. Patriots game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 60 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph W
Saints-Patriots prediction made 10/4/2023 at 6:14 a.m. ET
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