NFL Player Props Week 6: Predictions, Picks for Sunday

Sportsbook Review betting analysts Jon Metler and Neil Parker have been on an impressive run with their top NFL player prop picks, and they’re looking to improve on their active 11-3 run in Week 6. All of their picks are based on the NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites.

Neil Parker was all over Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals breaking out in Week 5, and boy, was he right. Burrow soared over his total of 251.5 passing yards. The Cincy QB aired it out for 317 yards to put another green checkmark on our ledger.

Our NFL player props record over the past three weeks is 10-3, and we're up +6.75 units.

The wins kept rolling in on Thursday Night Football with Jerick McKinnon going Over 12.5 receiving yards and bringing home our first green checkmark of the week.

We’re looking for Gardner Minshew, Derek Carr and K.J. Osborn to keep the green checkmarks coming in Week 6.

Here are our best NFL player props for Week 6 along with our NFL predictions for Week 6 and NFL best bets (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 6

• Geno Smith Over 20.5 completions (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
• K.J. Osborn Over 3.5 receptions (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Gardner Minshew Under 230.5 passing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Derek Carr Over 215.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
• Jerick McKinnon Over 12.5 receiving yards (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅

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NFL player props for Week 6: Sunday

Geno Smith Over 20.5 completions (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a bye and headed East to face the Cincinnati Bengals, and the matchup has one of the higher totals (46) in the NFL Week 6 odds. As a result, I’m anticipating Smith and the Seahawks airing it out early and often Sunday.

Additionally, I value that FanDuel has this total set at 22.5 completions, so we’re already grabbing an edge in that regard.

I have Smith projected for 21.5 completions and would price this Over at -153. It checks out at a positive expected value of 9% compared to the -125 DraftKings odds.

Our Esten McLaren has Smith hooking up with wide receiver DK Metcalf in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 6.

Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)

K.J. Osborn Over 3.5 receptions (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Justin Jefferson has been placed on injured reserve by the Minnesota Vikings due to a hamstring injury. When it comes to football player props, especially after a big injury to a star player, we like to target backups who should see a bigger role, but we also make certain assumptions. With Osborn, I don't think you're assuming much, which is why I like this prop, aside from the edge in the numbers. Even with Jefferson in the lineup, Osborn has always had a role within the Vikings' offense and chemistry with QB Kirk Cousins.

In terms of the betting numbers, I see an edge in the Over for both Osborn's receiving yards and receptions prop. I've decided to go after Osborn's receptions instead because there is a chance of rain and wind in Chicago on Sunday. Osborn isn't a deep route runner; he has had no deep targets this season. If the weather isn't ideal for passing, the Vikings will likely target those intermediate routes.

Osborn is projected to have 4.1 receptions against the Bears on Sunday, which means we can price the Over 3.5 receptions at -143. However, it is available at BetMGM at -105. This means this wager is showing an expected value of just under 15%, earning it a four-star rating.

The best price for this prop is available at BetMGM, but if the -105 on the Over 3.5 receptions disappears there, DraftKings is also offering the Over 3.5 receptions at -105.

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

Gardner Minshew Under 230.5 passing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Minshew is receiving a lot of attention on the Over for his passing yards prop, with the total jumping from 220.5 on the opener to 230.5. I'm sure there's no shortage of people looking to play the revenge angle here with Minshew, as he used to be the Jaguars' starting quarterback, but I'm going full fun police mode here. At 220.5, I wouldn't touch it, but give me the extra 10 yards up to 230.5, and I think we should assist our best sportsbooks a bit and give them what they want: an Under bet.

While Minshew will be motivated to put on a performance against his former team, are you telling me there's nobody in that building who knows how to completely disrupt Minshew's game? Scouting a backup quarterback isn't easy, but I'm sure the Jaguars have an in-depth game plan for Minshew.

In his rookie season when he started 12 games for the Jaguars and was very efficient, Minshew averaged a modest 233.6 passing yards per game. Additionally, the Indianapolis Colts recently paid Jonathan Taylor $42 million and are working him back into the lineup. With Zack Moss rushing for 165 yards last week and Taylor back in action, the Colts won't shy away from the run game.

Minshew is projected to have 228.5 passing yards against the Jaguars, which means we can price the Under 230.5 at -130, but it is available at Caesars at -109. You can see how the jump from 220.5 to 230.5 completely changes our perception of this bet because, with a projection of 228.5, we wouldn't have an edge on the Under 220.5.

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

Derek Carr Over 215.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐

This prop has had my attention the past two days because I have Carr projected for 230.8 passing yards, and the Pinnacle price for the Over 215.5 is -141.

I’d price this Over at -147 based on my projection, which is also in line with the Pinnacle number. However, most of our best sportsbooks are charging a far lower vig, with the -110 bet365 odds the most favorable. 

We’re landing a notable edge with the bet365 price. It checks out as a positive expected value of 14% based on my numbers, and 12% compared to the -141 odds through Pinnacle.

Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)

More NFL player props for Week 6:

• Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Ravens vs. Titans NFL player props
• Panthers vs. Dolphins NFL player props
• Vikings vs. Bears NFL player props
• Commanders vs. Falcons NFL player props
• Bijan Robinson NFL player props
• Saints vs. Texans NFL player props
• Eagles vs. Jets NFL player props
• Lions vs. Buccaneers NFL player props
• Cardinals vs. Rams NFL player props
• Giants vs. Bills NFL player props
• Josh Allen NFL player props

NFL player props for Week 6: Thursday

Jerick McKinnon Over 12.5 receiving yards (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅

I have absolutely no problem hitting the button whenever I see value on the Over for a McKinnon receiving yards prop. Why? Because McKinnon is one of the NFL's best pass-protecting running backs, so you know he's going to see the field in passing situations.

McKinnon's role within the Chiefs' offense is clearly defined. It's just about finding an edge in the betting numbers, and that's what we're getting in Week 6 ahead of Thursday Night Football.

I think McKinnon is undervalued in the market because the 10.5-point spread for the Chiefs gives the impression they should be operating from a positive game script, with more rushing than passing. While that's probably true, it's also been accounted for in the line, as McKinnon usually gets a receiving yards total of 15.5.

But we found a 12.5 at BetRivers for this matchup with the Denver Broncos. An adjustment relative to the spread, yes, but I believe it's been overadjusted.

McKinnon is projected to produce 18.4 receiving yards against the Broncos. That allows us to price the Over on 12.5 receiving yards at -130, yet BetRivers is offering it at -112. That means this bet is showing a positive expected value of just over 7%.

Price shopping is a key factor for this bet, and you'll want to attack this number at BetRivers to maximize your edge. Not all of our best NFL betting sites are trading McKinnon at a total of 12.5 receiving yards. For example, FanDuel has set its total at 14.5 (-113), and we wouldn't be getting an edge on that line based on our projection.

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

NFL betting odds pages

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

Sportsbook Review betting analysts Jon Metler and Neil Parker have made their top NFL player prop picks for Week 6. They’re set to improve on their impressive 10-3 record over the past three weeks and extend the winning streak with picks based on the NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites.