NFL Player Props & Odds Week 4: Best Props Bets Tonight for Monday Night Football
We cashed two of our four NFL Week 4 player prop bets on Sunday, including both five-star plays, and we're looking to end on a strong note tonight on Monday Night Football.
The latest Monday Night Football odds have the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions favored to win tonight at home, as we offer our best Monday Night Football player props for each game:
- The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points over the Titans with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley getting the nod for Miami
- The Seahawks are 4.5-point underdogs and will need quarterback Geno Smith to show up tonight
Here is my favorite player prop bet for each game on Monday Night Football, along with the rest of my NFL Week 4 predictions.
NFL player prop bets for Week 4
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Tyler Huntley Under 30.5 yards longest completion (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Titans ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Geno Smith Over 34.5 pass attempts (-114 via FanDuel) at Lions ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Jones Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) at Packers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Marvin Harrison Jr. to score a TD (+110 via bet365) vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Zay Flowers Over 4.5 receptions (-140 via FanDuel) vs. Bills ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
- Najee Harris Over 17.5 rush attempts (-120 via DraftKings) at Colts ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
NFL Week 4 player prop bets: Monday Night Football
Tyler Huntley Under 30.5 yards longest completion (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Look, I love "Snoop" Huntley as much as the next guy, and I think the Dolphins are making the right call starting him tonight. But I'd be pretty surprised if he completes a pass longer than 30 yards.
That just isn't his style. Huntley is a talented throw in the quick game and is also an effective rusher, but he doesn't like to force it downfield as his average depth of target has dropped every year. That's why Mike Spector likes Miami in his Titans vs. Dolphins prediction.
Huntley's longest throw in his last start - a Week 18 contest for the Baltimore Ravens last year - was just 27 yards. It was one of just three completions over 20 yards in his five starts over the last two seasons.
He's fallen short of this total in four of those five games, and the Dolphins surely won't ask too much of the veteran after he was signed off the Ravens' practice squad two weeks ago. That's why Philip Wood is targeting De'Von Achane in his Titans vs. Dolphins prop bets.
Even if Huntley goes out and manages the game well, I still don't expect him to toss it beyond 30 yards for the first time in almost two years.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Geno Smith Over 34.5 pass attempts (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wood called out an Aidan Hutchinson prop in his Seahawks vs. Lions prop bets, which I fully endorse and bet myself. But I'm even more bullish on this passing prop for Smith in a tricky matchup for Seattle.
On one hand, the Lions' secondary is vulnerable to giving up explosive plays, and the Seahawks look to take shots downfield. But Seattle's offensive line might be the worst in the NFL, which has forced new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to rely more on the quick passing game.
The result has been one of the highest volume passing attacks in football, as Smith ranked seventh in pass attempts (103) entering Sunday's slate.
Even with Kenneth Walker returning for Seattle, I don't expect the 'Hawks to try to test this elite Lions run defense more than it needs to. Instead, expect Smith to target short throws over the middle while mixing in the occasional deep shot.
This total has inched higher in recent days while the Seahawks' odds have lengthened amid injuries to their defense. That could force Smith to play catch-up much more than he's had to amid a 3-0 start - a role he excels in, as Spector highlighted in his Seahawks vs. Lions prediction.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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NFL Week 4 player prop bets: Sunday Night Football
Zay Flowers Over 4.5 receptions (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baltimore will never feature a high-volume passing attack with its current personnel, but Flowers has stil carved out a sizable role in this offense.
The second-year star saw a combined 21 targets in the first two weeks, hauling in at least six receptions in each game. He finished with just three catches on four targets last week, but both still led the team with Jackson attempting just 15 passes.
The Ravens won't get away with that sort of extreme split against a fellow title contender. Instead, I fully expect them to target their top wideout early and often in a favorable matchup against Buffalo's depleted secondary.
The Bills enter tonight's matchup without their starting slot corner or their two inside linebackers, opening up an obvious gap in the middle of the field where Flowers loves to operate. He's also excelled against zone coverage, which Buffalo runs more than anyone.
Fill-in slot corner Cam Lewis is especially vulnerable in zone looks, and good luck to Buffalo's reserve linebackers if they find themselves stuck on Flowers. We dive more into Baltimore's ability to exploit that matchup in our Lamar Jackson SNF player prop bets.
Don't be too scared off by these short odds at FanDuel, which would still turn a $10 bet into a $7.14 profit if he clears this total for the third time in four weeks.
Best odds: -140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 58.33%
NFL Week 4 player prop bets: Sunday
Aaron Jones Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Anyone who's followed this column or read my NFL awards predictions knows how much I love Jones, who helped us cash on a combined yardage bet in his Vikings debut in Week 1.
After a quiet Week 2, the Pro Bowl back ran for 102 yards last week on 19 carries against the Houston Texans - his seventh time with at least 90 yards in his previous eight games dating back to last season.
He needs fewer than 60 yards to cash this bet in an emotional return to Lambeau Field to face his former team, which still hasn't sufficiently answered questions about a run defense that has been underwhelming in Green Bay for years.
If Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell wants to protect his dark-horse NFL MVP odds contender in Sam Darnold from an opportunistic Packers secondary, he'd be wise to feed Jones early and often in Sunday's NFC North showdown.
And if that happens, a winning $10 wager would profit $8.70 at BetMGM, which is offering a total two yards lower than the market consensus.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
Najee Harris Over 17.5 rush attempts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Harris is in the midst of a career-worst year in terms of yards per carry (3.8) and success rate (41.8%). But he's seeing a career-best 18.3 carries per game under new Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
The fourth-year back has enjoyed at least 17 carries in all three games this season, even though he's yet to play more than 60% of the snaps as he splits time in the backfield with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson.
With Warren (knee) officially ruled out for Sunday's matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, Harris is in a prime position to clear this total for the third time in four weeks.
The Steelers rank third leaguewide in rushing rate (57.14%), and the Colts allow the NFL's most plays per game (75.5) while also ceding the most rushing yards (179 YPG) after getting gashed for 200-plus yards in two of the first three weeks.
Even if Harris doesn't find early success, I expect him to keep getting chances to clear this total. And if he does, a $10 bet would return $8.33 in profit at DraftKings.
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%
Marvin Harrison Jr. to score a TD (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Harrison has been as advertised in his first season with the Arizona Cardinals, scoring three touchdowns over the last two weeks to establish himself among the favorites by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
He went off for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of a Week 2 win over the Los Angeles Rams. He followed that with 11 targets last week against the Detroit Lions, converting those into 64 yards and a first-quarter score.
Even a double team can't keep Harrison from the end zone, and he has to be salivating at Sunday's matchup with this Washington Commanders secondary.
Dan Quinn's defense ranks 31th in passing yards allowed (255.7 YPG) and has already surrendered nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers - three more than any other team in football.
If Harrison reaches paydirt in Week 4, a bet at these +100 odds via bet365 would return $10 in profit for every $10 wagered.
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
More NFL player props for Week 4
- Broncos vs. Jets player prop bets
- Vikings vs. Packers player prop bets
- Chiefs vs. Chargers player prop bets
- Bills vs. Ravens SNF prop bets
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Touchdown parlay
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