Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Week 4: Picks & Odds for Sunday's Slate
My anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the 2024 NFL season are down only 0.10 units following Thursday Night Football's kick-off to Week 4. We'll look to get back into the black with our final full Sunday slate before bye weeks begin.
The NFL Week 4 odds feature the continued trend of low point totals, but we managed to cash on Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle's touchdown in Thursday's low-scoring affair.
Our anytime touchdown picks for Sunday will combine with Mike Spector's NFL predictions and best bets to make this a profitable week.
My eyes were immediately drawn to the week's highest point total of 49 between the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals. We'll also target the Houston Texans as they look to improve their Super Bowl odds following last week's upset loss.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 4: Sunday
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Jaguars vs. Texans anytime touchdown scorer prediction: C.J. Stroud, HOU, QB ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +650 via Caesars | Implied probability: 13.33%
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Stroud's running just as much as he did during his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, but he's much less successful through three games. His yards per attempt average is down 1.3 yards, and he's yet to cross the goal line after scoring thrice in 2023-24.
He now has a golden opportunity against a struggling Jaguars team he scored - and accrued 61 rushing yards - against last season. The Jags are also allowing 5.20 rushing yards to quarterbacks with one touchdown allowed.
Stroud should be counted on a little more on the ground - at least early - with Texans running back Joe Mixon at less than full health, even if he manages to dress. Houston is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5 (the third-highest number on Sunday afternoon's slate).
A $10 bet at Caesars' +650 odds would return a profit of $65, according to our NFL player prop odds tool. DraftKings' +320 odds would return just a $32 profit but at a much higher 23.81% implied probability.
Commanders vs. Cardinals anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Noah Brown, WAS, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +400 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 20.00%
I first bet Brown at +410 odds in our touchdown parlay for Week 4, but his odds dropping ever so slightly makes this recommendation even stronger.
Technically behind Terry McLaurin on the Commanders' wide receiver depth chart, Brown leads his team with two red-zone receptions - on two targets. He has caught all six of his targets from rookie QB Jayden Daniels for 85 yards (14.2 Y/R).
Though the 2017 draft product has played just 33 snaps through two games, he clearly has the eye of his quarterback - and the trust of his coaches - in critical scoring areas. I expect his usage to rise in a game with a 49-point total in which the Commanders are modest 3.5-point road underdogs.
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