NFL Week 4 Trends: Why are Unders, Underdogs Cashing at Prolific Rate?

We're only three weeks into the football season, but we're already seeing some compelling NFL trends emerge ahead of Week 4. And they're becoming harder to ignore by the week.

Scoring has dropped to levels that we haven't seen in almost two decades, forcing our best NFL betting sites to keep dropping game and prop totals to keep up with record-low production from quarterbacks.

Meanwhile, massive underdogs are covering and even winning outright at an alarming rate to shake up the Super Bowl odds entering Week 4.

Why are we seeing these NFL trends take effect, and how can we take advantage of the NFL Week 4 odds and beyond?

NFL scoring at historic lows in 2024

Entering the Monday Night Football odds, teams were scoring just 20.7 points per game through the first three weeks of the NFL season.

That was on pace for the lowest mark in a season since 2006 before a series of rule changes were introduced to help protect and promote quarterbacks. We had also seen the fewest passing touchdowns per game (1.17) since 1993, a year before the salary cap was introduced.

Meanwhile, sacks have been trending at the highest rate (8.1%) since 1985, and field goals per game (1.89) were on pace to set a new NFL record.

Sure enough, the Under had gone 27-18-1 entering Monday's action - the second-best mark through the first three weeks in 20 years. That included a 20-9-1 record for the Under over the last two weeks alone.

Then came Monday's blowout in Buffalo and barn-burner in Cincinnati, both of which went Over with a combined 128 points scored.

But the point remains: touchdowns simply aren't as easy to come by as they used to be.

Defensive schemes, injuries limiting TDs

If you've even casually followed the NFL discourse through the first three weeks, you've surely seen talking heads debate the proliferation of "two-high looks" - meaning two safeties lined up deep - and how it's neutralized scoring.

This isn't new to this season, as we've seen defenses switch from primarily one-high looks in the 2010s to a new two-high reality in recent years.

That came as a direct response to the historic passing numbers that seemed to be inevitably rising since the early 2010s. Instead, defensive coordinators have gotten more savvy with coverage shells and five or six defensive backs on the field.

Teams are still running Cover 1 or Cover 3 on more than half their snaps, but the increase in two-high looks has effectively frozen offenses in recent years and especially this season - forcing them to settle for short gains underneath and fewer shots downfield.

It doesn't help that many of the NFL's top offensive stars are already hurt or, in some cases, showing signs of rust after sitting out camp. That includes some early injuries to quarterbacks, which is the quickest way to derail an offense.

It all adds up to a historically impressive start by defenses through three weeks, and Under bettors have benefitted with a profitable run to open the year.

How to bet NFL Week 4 totals

Just because scoring has dipped through three weeks doesn't mean that will continue moving forward. But all signs point to this as a long-term trend.

Our best sports betting sites have responded by offering lower totals than usual, which remains the case in Week 4. But the Under has cashed at a nearly 60% clip, anyway, and we could see that continue into this week.

Here's a look at the early Week 4 betting totals at BetMGM, sorted from highest to lowest:

It's only fitting that the Bengals and Commanders - who combined for the first NFL game with zero punts or turnovers since at least 1940 - are featured in the games with the highest totals of Week 4.

Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders could be rolling out new quarterbacks this week in games with the lowest totals. The Los Angeles Chargers could be doing the same against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have played in just two games with a sub-40 total since 2017.

If I had to bet one Under at these early prices with my NFL Week 4 predictions, I'd be eyeing the Vikings vs. Packers matchup featuring two stout running games and impressive defenses. Minnesota, in particular, has taken modern defense to a new level through three weeks under coordinator Brian Flores while allowing 10 PPG.

I broke down the Vikings Super Bowl odds on Monday.

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Underdogs keep barking in Week 3

Maybe it's related to the NFL's leaguewide scoring dip, or maybe parity has reached a fever pitch after years of trending in that direction.

Either way, big underdogs are cashing at a prolific rate through Week 3. Teams catching at least 5.5 points have gone an astounding 14-2 against the spread with 10 outright wins through the first three weeks of the season.

That includes a perfect 5-0 record this week after the Commanders (+7.5) became the latest team to win in surprising fashion on Monday Night Football. They followed the Broncos (+5.5), Giants (+6.5), Panthers (+5.5), and Rams (+6.5), who all won on Sunday.

That comes even with fewer big underdogs than we've seen in decades. Nine of Sunday's 13 games featured a spread of four points or less, and the average point spread through three weeks (minus-4.1) was the lowest since 1983 entering this week.

Lower scores leading to big upsets

The easiest explanation for what we've seen so far? Teams simply aren't pulling away like they used to.

While teams are scoring roughly one point fewer per game than they did a season ago, we're also seeing the largest lead in each game dip by a similar margin compared to the historical average:

Entering Monday, the average margin of victory (10.5) was on track for the second-lowest mark in NFL history. The lowest came just two years ago, suggesting that parity has been on the rise for years as the leaguewide scoring boon slows.

We're also seeing teams run fewer plays on average (60.7) than in any season since 1992. Fewer plays means a smaller sample size overall and more volatility in the final result, which is partly why underdogs are winning nearly 40% of games outright entering Week 4.

How to bet NFL Week 4 underdogs

Again, the usual caveat applies: just because underdogs are cashing at an impressive clip thus far doesn't mean it'll continue moving forward.

It does certainly seem like there's something to the early success for underdogs, though, especially those catching a big number before kickoff.

Here's a look at the biggest Week 4 underdogs at bet365:

Similarly to last week, just six games feature a point spread larger than four points, and only four games fit the betting trend of underdogs at +5.5 or better.

Of those four teams, I'd be most intrigued by the Jacksonville Jaguars even after that embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football. They're facing a division rival in the Houston Texans who suffered their own 34-7 blowout loss in Minnesota, and the Jaguars won outright in Houston last season.

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