Vikings Odds & Futures Picks: How to Bet Sam Darnold, Minnesota After 3-0 Start
After the Kansas City Chiefs' narrow win on Sunday Night Football, only five NFL teams remain undefeated entering tonight's Monday Night Football doubleheader to close Week 4.
None have looked more impressive than the Minnesota Vikings, who are among the biggest risers in the Super Bowl odds after a 34-7 statement win over the Houston Texans in Week 3 - securing the franchise's best start in almost a decade.
That comes just three weeks after Minnesota was priced as an afterthought to win the NFC North and a long shot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time. Both seem possible as we look ahead to the NFL Week 4 odds.
Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl odds
Super Bowl odds entering Week 4 from our best sports betting sites
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2500 | +3400 | +3000 | +2500 | +2800 |
Entering the NFL season, the Vikings were dealing as 100/1 long shots across our best Super Bowl betting sites. Those odds have been slashed after the team's first 3-0 start since the 2016 season.
Now the best price for Minnesota is +3400 at FanDuel, which still feels like nice value for the NFL's second-best team by point differential (plus-55) through three weeks.
This team was flirting with 50/1 odds just a few days ago before dismantling the Texans, who were among the trendy Super Bowl predictions entering the year. That came a week after Minnesota beat the San Francisco 49ers, who remain the favorites to win the NFC.
With two wins over Super Bowl contenders in the last two weeks, it begs an obvious question: is that how we should view the Vikings, too?
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Sam Darnold reborn in Twin Cities
When the Vikings signed Sam Darnold to a 1-year, $10 million deal in March, many dismissed the move as Minnesota let Kirk Cousins walk out the door after an MVP-caliber season. He still didn't fully gain the spotlight until rookie J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason.
It turns out the former No. 3 pick still has something left in the tank, and he's left no doubt about his bona fides to run this offense after arguably the best game of his career.
Through his first three games in Minnesota, Darnold leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (8) and is the first quarterback in franchise history to open the season with a 3-0 record and multiple TDs in each game.
It's not just him, either. Aaron Jones - who led my favorite NFL awards bets as a 200/1 long shot to win OPOY - had 24 touches for a combined 148 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, while Justin Jefferson (81 yards, TD) continues to terrorize defenses after reaching paydirt in all three games.
None of it would work without Darnold excelling under Kevin O'Connell, who has earned his reputation as a QB whisperer. And he's clearly worked his magic once again with his 27-year-old protege.
Sam Darnold MVP odds
NFL MVP odds from our best sports betting apps
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| +3000 | +2500 | +3500 | +2500 |
Laugh if you want, but Darnold is quickly rising in the NFL MVP odds market, and I wouldn't want to be the one accountable for writing a bet slip at 35/1 odds.
As mentioned earlier, Darnold already leads the league in passing TDs, which has been highly correlated with MVP winners over the years. He also ranks fifth in QBR (73), another strong predictor of eventual voting results.
It's one thing to play at an MVP level for three games; it's another thing entirely to do it for 17 weeks, which Darnold clearly never has. That's why he's still dealing as a long shot at BetMGM, where a $10 bet would return $350 in profit.
He's also never had the infrastructure across a full season like he does in Minnesota, and the early returns are striking.
Darnold is +650 by the latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, though I wouldn't recommend a bet at those odds given the award's clarified criteria. I would rather bet on him to win MVP at +3500 odds at BetMGM.
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Vikings defense among NFL's best
Darnold isn't the only one enjoying a career renaissance up north. So is defensive coordinator Brian Flores, whose name has been dragged through the mud since he was fired as the Miami Dolphins' head coach after the 2021 season.
In his second year leading Minnesota's defense, he's reminded everyone why he's regarded as one of the NFL's best defensive minds.
The Vikings entered this week ranked second in sacks (11) and pressure rate (38.7%), and they sacked C.J. Stroud four times with two interceptions while holding him to his fifth-fewest yards (215) in 18 career starts.
That comes after they forced Brock Purdy (319 yards, TD) into two turnovers and sacked him six times last week in a 17-point effort for San Francisco.
After back-to-back games against renowned signal-callers and MVP-caliber quarterbacks, Minnesota ranks second in scoring defense (10 PPG) with three touchdowns allowed in as many weeks.
Jonathan Greenard (four sacks), Pat Jones (four), and Andrew Van Ginkel (three) all rank among the league leaders in sacks, while Van Ginkel is one of five Vikings with an interception through the first three weeks - more than any other team.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
If the Vikings end up with the best defense in the NFL - and that's certainly a possibility - wouldn't that suggest that some of their defensive stars should be in the running by the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds?
Greenard (+10000), Van Ginkel (+20000), and Jones (+20000) are the only Minnesota players priced shorter than 300/1 at FanDuel.
They're all worth a bet at those odds, while safety Harrison Smith (+30000) is the most compelling option beyond that if only for his high name value and respect among voters. He did intercept a pass in Week 1, too.
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How to bet on the Minnesota Vikings entering NFL Week 4
Look, I don't want to overreact to three weeks of NFL football, especially when our hard-earned money would be tied up for five months.
But this shouldn't be viewed as a mere blip on the radar for a team that fizzles by December. I've long respected O'Connell as an offensive coach and Darnold as an unrealized talent, and this isn't the first time Flores has dialed up pressure for one of the NFL's best defenses.
Surprising as the early results may be, it feels like we're watching a sustainable product on the field against some of the best teams in the NFL.
I don't mind the Vikings' +3400 odds to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel, and I also like their +1400 odds at bet365 to win the NFC, which feels like the inferior conference this year.
I'm especially compelled by Minnesota's +230 odds to win the NFC North at bet365 with a $10 bet profiting $23.50. I like all three teams near the top of this division, but the only undefeated squad among them has a legitimate shot to win if it keeps playing like it has through three weeks.
Of course, you can also just bet on the Vikings on a week-to-week basis. They're priced at +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM ahead of Sunday's road tilt against the Green Bay Packers.
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Minnesota Vikings NFC North odds
NFC North odds from our best sportsbooks
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +175 | +195 | +180 | +185 | +230 |
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