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NFL Predictions, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 28, 2024 6:00 AM EDT • 5 min 57 sec read.

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. reacts after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos as we look at our NFL predictions and best bets for Week 4.
Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. reacts after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos. Photo by Isaiah J. Downing/Imagn Images.

Week 4 is the last full 16-game NFL slate for a while, as bye weeks and international games infiltrate next week’s schedule. So there's plenty of data among all 32 NFL teams with which to make our picks.

Here are the highlights of our Week 4 NFL predictions and best bets, with several of the squads featured sitting among the top 10 in the Super Bowl odds.

  • A running back in a hot offense should receive the bulk of the workload with his backfield mate out with an injury
  • Baker Mayfield should bounce back against an Eagles defense that doesn't pressure the quarterback
  • Minnesota’s defense has made history thus far, which should lead to another low-scoring divisional battle

Our NFL Week 4 predictions examine the two best player props and game picks amid a loaded week of our NFL action.

Best NFL bets for Week 4

NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Week 4 NFL odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+1.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) vs. Houston Texans (-7), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs. Chicago Bears (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Cincinnati Bengals (-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (+4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Denver Broncos (+7.5) vs. New York Jets (-7.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Washington Commanders (+4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (-4), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • New England Patriots (+10.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Cleveland Browns (+1.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+7.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Buffalo Bills (+2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Tennessee Titans (+1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5), Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

NFL player props for Week 4

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 69.5 rushing yards (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Caesars was the first of our best sports betting sites to feature a traditional total for Robinson's rushing yards. But since backing the Over of 62.5 yards would cost -114 in juice, I'm heading for an alternate line and optimal value at DraftKings, which pays plus-money odds for Robinson to run for just seven more yards than his implied total.

Robinson figures to get the backfield to himself now that teammate Austin Ekeler has already been ruled out with a concussion. He was already set to receive the bulk of the workload after playing nearly 60% of the snaps over the first two weeks while averaging 68.7 yards and 15 carries per game.

The tailback also plays for a Washington offense that's one of four teams in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs) to go back-to-back games without a punt. His rushing opportunities should continue in abundance if the Commanders' offense stays on the field so much.

A winning $10 wager at DraftKings’ +120 odds would net $12 in profit.

Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%

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Baker Mayfield Under 0.5 interceptions (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Baker Mayfield has recorded eight or fewer incompletions in all three games this season, so it seems he's been unlucky to have thrown an interception in back-to-back contests.

Mayfield’s QBR this season is 22nd when he's pressured, but it vaults up to eighth in a clean pocket. That bodes well for his chances of success against an Eagles defense that ranks 26th while pressuring the quarterback on 25% of dropbacks this season. 

This should also be a week we see Tampa Bay commit more to the running game. Bucky Irving’s 6.2 yards per rush this season is tied for the second-most among running backs, while Philadelphia allows the fourth-most yards per carry to running backs (5.2).

Mayfield is getting a 51.46% implied probability to go without an interception in this game based on Caesars’ -106 odds. But the plus-money odds at DraftKings look even more appealing. At the +100 price, bettors would double their initial wager in profit if Mayfield doesn't get picked off.

Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.00%

NFL game predictions for Week 4

Vikings-Packers Under 43.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Regardless of Jordan Love’s playing status for this game, I love the Under in this NFC North clash based off what the Vikings have been doing defensively.

Minnesota is the second team since 1963 with five sacks and multiple takeaways in each of the first three games of a season. And despite facing the high-powered offenses the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans field, the Vikings have not allowed a top-12 fantasy quarterback or wide receiver yet. 

The Vikes boast an aggressive defense while blitzing opponents at the second-highest rate (41%). And if Love is under center, he didn't do well against the Vikings' blitz during the first matchup last year, facing it 38% of the time and averaging 5.8 yards per attempt with a 42% first-down percentage.

Conversely, the Packers' defense has allowed fewer than 17 fantasy points to the opposing quarterback in each game, which should cool off the red-hot Sam Darnold.

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with the 43.5-point total, but BetMGM is the only one charging less than -108 in juice to back the Under. A $10 winning wager would pay out $19.52.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Saints-Falcons Under 42.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

After averaging 405.5 yards and 45.5 points per game during a 2-0 start, the New Orleans Saints' offense came crashing back with 219 total yards and 12 points last week against Philadelphia. 

The Eagles clearly figured out ways to slow Derek Carr down that the Atlanta Falcons' coaching staff should be able to use.

Carr was 8-for-11 for 259 pass yards and a 3-to-1 TD:INT ratio on passes 15-plus yards downfield in Weeks 1 and 2. However, last week on such attempts he completed three of seven passes for 71 yards and a 0-to-1 TD:INT ratio. The Saints also utilized play-action passes last week on 27% of their plays, and Carr completed just 40% of his throws while averaging five yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offense was stymied in the second half last game, producing three points on four drives while averaging 5.7 yards per attempt and going 0-for-2 in the red zone. Kirk Cousins was also off target on 24% of his pass attempts during the second half and went 2-for-9 on third down. It doesn't help that Bijan Robinson has been held to a career-low 1.9 yards per rush in games when he's tallied at least eight carries.

Caesars is alone among our best sports betting apps while offering a total as high as 42.5 (others are at 42) with standard -110 juice to back the Under. A winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL MVP OddsNFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Offensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Playoff OddsNFL Draft Odds

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”