Patrick Mahomes Player Props, Predictions Week 1: Will Chiefs QB Have Big Opening Night?
Our top Patrick Mahomes player prop picks can help you start your NFL betting season on the right foot as we assess the best NFL odds for the season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.
Reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes hits the field for his seventh NFL season on Thursday night, but he could be without his top target.
Travis Kelce suffered a knee injury on Tuesday, and because of that, his status for Thursday night is in doubt. If the star tight end is unable to play, Mahomes will have to rely on a banged-up Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdez Scantling.
Of course, there is really no cause for concern. Mahomes always seems to find a way to put up video game numbers. How will he fair against an up-and-coming Lions secondary in the season opener?
Here are our best Patrick Mahomes player prop picks for the Lions vs. Chiefs Week 1 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop picks for Week 1
- Under 286.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over 0.5 interceptions (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over 18.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Patrick Mahomes player props
Under 286.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Taking Mahomes’ Under at home against the Lions feels strange. Yet, it absolutely feels like the right play. Last season, Mahomes got off to a “slow” start. After an incredible Week 1 performance, he failed to throw for more than 270 yards in three consecutive games despite his team scoring 85 points during that stretch.
With Kelce questionable, Mahomes doesn’t have a go-to target. While his receiving corps will certainly be made better by his presence, there are no definitive playmakers in the bunch. Toney is the closest the Chiefs have to a great receiver, and he missed all of training camp with a partially torn meniscus.
In last year’s postseason, Mahomes threw for less than 200 yards in two of his three games. We’re not saying the Lions have a defense of the caliber he saw during that stretch, but they certainly could be that good this year. And with this number under 300 against a defense that has been historically bad in recent years, it feels like the public is going to hammer the Over.
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Check out our Lions-Chiefs prediction, Lions-Chiefs player props, and NFL Week 1 predictions.
Over 0.5 interceptions (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
While Mahomes may not throw for a lot of yards, there is always the chance he has a successful day throwing touchdowns. However, the price of +135 for him to throw at least three simply isn’t good enough. Therefore, we’re going to go with a bet that we think is more valuable and more likely to happen.
See also: Lions vs. Chiefs player props, NFL Week 1 player props
Last season, Mahomes threw 12 interceptions, spread out across nine different games. Despite having a relatively bad defense in 2022, the Lions actually intercepted 12 balls. The secondary is supposedly better, and with the receiving corps that Mahomes is working with Thursday, there are going to be miscommunications.
Mahomes doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but he does make more than you would expect. At nearly even money, this is a solid bet, especially when comparing it to other Mahomes props.
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Over 18.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Lions' defensive line is really good, and they are going to be in the backfield often in this game. However, Mahomes has the ability to scramble when he’s in trouble and the Lions have been burned by mobile quarterbacks in the past.
Last season, the Lions allowed 700 rushing yards on 100 carries to quarterbacks. That was 175 more yards than allowed by the Miami Dolphins who gave up the second-most yards in the league. With his usual safety net questionable with a knee injury, Mahomes may have to do it himself a lot in this game.
Last regular season, Mahomes rushed for 20 or more yards in 10 games, and he rushed for 44 in the Super Bowl against another very aggressive defensive line. If the Lions don’t figure out how to contain Mahomes early, he may hit this Over in the first half.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 9/7/2023 at 7:43 a.m. ET.
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