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Lions vs. Chiefs Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 1: Thursday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 7, 2023 6:57 PM EDT • 4 min 39 sec read.

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs features in our Chiefs vs. Jets SGP
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs passes the ball to Travis Kelce #87 during the first quarter in the game against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on January 01, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP

The 2023 NFL season begins Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions, and our best Lions vs. Chiefs predictions for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds have you covered.

Things looked bleak for Detroit after starting 1-6 last season, but the team rebounded to win eight of its final 10 games and was just a Week 18 Los Angeles Rams win away from clinching a playoff berth. The Lions’ 8-2 stretch included a 5-0 record in divisional games that helped secure their first winning record in the last five seasons.

Detroit owned a 5-0 divisional record during an 8-2 run that helped secure their first winning record in the last five seasons.

Meanwhile, it was the usual song and dance for Patrick Mahomes and his dynastic Kansas City Chiefs team. The Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 for their second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.

Kansas City has won 10-plus games in eight consecutive seasons, and another AFC West title this year would be eight straight and tie the New England Patriots for the second-most consecutive division titles in NFL history (the NFL record is 11, New England from 2009 to 2019). The Chiefs' 64 wins since 2018 are the most in the NFL.

Here is our best Lions vs. Chiefs prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lions vs. Chiefs prediction

Over 54 (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: The total has since moved due to Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce's unknown game status after hyperextending his knee at Tuesday's practice.

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The last time Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes met head-to-head was also a prime-time matchup on Monday Night Football in 2018, and their two teams combined for 105 points (most in MNF history), 14 touchdowns (second-most in NFL history), and Mahomes’ six passing touchdowns in a loss were the most in MNF history. While we don't think this year’s meeting will be as historic, we do expect a shootout that goes over the projected total.

Download our FREE Thursday Night Football Prop Bet Sheet PDF!

With Travis Kelce likely sidelined, the Chiefs may lean more on other offensive weapons. Our Neil Parker is rocking with two of them in his NFL Week 1 player props.

Detroit and Kansas City each ranked in the top five in yards per game and points per game last season, while its defenses were two of the four worst in interior run stop win rates. The Chiefs, in particular, led the league in points per game (29.2), yards per game (413.6), efficiency (76.4), total QBR (77.4), and pass block win rate (75%). Former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is gone, and in that role since 2018, the Chiefs ranked first in PPG, YPG, QBR, and third-down percentage and top six in points and yards every season. However, we have complete confidence in head coach Andy Reid to keep the offense at an elite level. As part of that, our Rodrigo Villagomez is featuring two Chiefs players in his Lions-Chiefs player props.

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The Chiefs' defense suffered a massive loss with tackle Chris Jones on the reserve/did not report list. Jones had 15.5 sacks last season, which tied for fourth in the NFL and matched his career high. When Jones has been on the field the previous five seasons, Kansas City has allowed a 52 QBR, generated the highest pressure percentage (35%), and had a 38% third-down percentage. When Jones has been off the field in that span, the team has allowed a 66 QBR, ranks 28th in pressure percentage (27%), and allowed a 48% third-down percentage.

The biggest advantage the Chiefs figured to have was against the middle of the Lions' offensive line (Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker are elite tackles), but that advantage is mitigated without Jones. Meanwhile, Kansas City had the third-most defensive snaps by rookies last season (2,917), but it's not like those players are seasoned veterans in their second years.

Goff had a top-five total QBR last season (61) and had his second–highest QBR from inside the pocket (69). But Mahomes had an elite efficiency rating of 77, 78 QBR, and a 71% red zone touchdown percentage, and should attack a Lions pass defense that ranked last in QBR (69), 31st in yards per attempt (7.9), 30th in pass yards per game (245.8), and 30th in 20-yards plays allowed (60).

Be sure to check out Lions vs. Chiefs player props for some added action on this game!

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Lions vs. Chiefs best odds

BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 54Over 54.5Over 54Over 54Over 54
-110-105-110-110-110

Four of the five major sportsbooks are aligned with the same O/U of 54 at standard -110 juice on either side, while FanDuel is the only sportsbook that differs by a half-point. FanDuel charges -115 odds to back the Under of 54.5, but we need more than the -105 juice to shop there when losing a half-point of value.

Lions vs. Chiefs odds

Lions vs. Chiefs odds analysis

BetMGM was aligned with FanDuel as it opened with a total of 54.5, and it stayed there for more than a week before bettors drove it down to 54. Meanwhile, the odds at Caesars bounced up and down multiple times from 54 to 54.5, which suggests the shop is likely to kick off with one of those numbers being its opening total.

While some shops differ slightly on the total, all are in unison with the Chiefs as -6.5 point favorites, though FanDuel and BetRivers charge slightly more in juice to lay the points with the favorites at -115 and -112 odds, respectively. Home teams in the Week 1 Thursday night opener are 12-7-3 ATS since 2000.

Kansas City’s moneyline odds are as low as -275 at BetMGM and as high as -320 at Caesars.

Lions vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Thursday, Sept. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 9-mph ENE

Lions-Chiefs prediction made 9/4/2023 at 8:42 a.m. ET

NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Sacks Leader Odds
NFL MVP OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Best Record Odds
NFL Offensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Passing Yards OddsNFL Worst Record Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Receiving Yards OddsNFL Draft Odds
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.