Lions vs. Texans Prediction, SNF Picks & Odds: Sunday Night Football
The Detroit Lions are road favorites in a Sunday Night Football matchup of division leaders when they meet the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.
- The Texans are one of five remaining unbeaten teams at home (4-0) while the Lions are one of three undefeated teams on the road (4-0)
- Detroit is on its longest winning streak (six games) since 2010-11
- Road favorites are a combined 33-18-2 ATS this season
Our Sunday Night Football odds have moved in Houston’s favor, but we are more aligned with the public backing the Lions.
Detroit is a 3.5-point road favorite, with kickoff from NRG Stadium set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC).
Be sure to check out our Lions vs. Texans early picks for our previous look at this game as part of our NFL Week 10 predictions.
We also dove into this game with our Lions vs. Texans SNF prop bets, Jared Goff SNF player prop bets, C.J. Stroud SNF player prop bets, and our first touchdown scorer predictions.
Best Lions vs. Texans picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Lions -3.5 (-108 via FanDuel) vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Jared Goff Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lions vs. Texans against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
Lions to cover the spread: -3.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐
Nico Collins’ return delayed?
Texans star wide receiver Nico Collins reportedly passed a number of tests on his hamstring, but as of Thursday night, he had still not been designated from IR and was not seen at practice.
That news casts real doubt about whether he will be available to suit up Sunday night, and significantly lowers Houston’s offensive ceiling.
Without Collins and Stefon Diggs (lost for the season to a torn ACL), Houston averaged just 4.3 yards per play and scored on one of four red-zone trips in a Week 9 loss to the Jets.
Houston’s offensive line woes
In Week 9, C.J. Stroud was pressured on a career-high 47% of dropbacks and was sacked eight times.
The interior of Houston’s offensive line has allowed a league-high 20.5 sacks. That is a huge concern when facing players like defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who is tied for first among defensive tackles with 24 quarterback pressures.
Stroud has the second-highest quick pressure rate in all of football. And just when teams thought they were getting a reprieve when facing the Lions pass rush after they lost Aidan Hutchinson to injury, Detroit reloaded with the acquisition of Za’Darius Smith.
Smith is a huge pickup, as he had recorded six tackles for loss, five sacks, and seven quarterback hits in his time with the Browns prior to the trade.
Detroit’s historic ATS run
Over Detroit’s last 55 games dating back to the 2021 season, it has covered a whopping 72.7% of its games (40 of 55).
Though this spread got as low as Detroit -3 earlier in the week, the slight uptick to -3.5 is warranted given the doubt surrounding Collins’ playing status.
If Collins is ultimately ruled out for Sunday night, this game could kick off with a spread higher than the original number of Detroit -4 (it was -4.5 at a few best sports betting sites).
I am making this wager at FanDuel, the only sportsbook charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the favorites.
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
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Lions vs. Texans player prop
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Jared Goff Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jared Goff is on an incredible run, as he has led the team to more touchdowns (28) than he has incompletions (24) during the six-game winning streak.
Goff has thrown multiple touchdown passes five times during the streak and ranks first among all quarterbacks over the last five games with an 11-0 TD-INT ratio and a 10.6 yards per attempt average.
However, this is a four-star play since Houston gets one of its most important defensive players back from injury in Azeez Al-Shaair. Even without Al-Shaair for three games, Houston’s pass defense ranks in the top three of the league in CPOE and yards per attempt.
This feels like a week when Detroit will lean on its running game via the two-headed monster that is Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Under backers are getting great value making this wager at BetMGM, as the Under is juiced as high as -152 (carrying a 60.32% implied probability) at FanDuel. Through BetMGM’s -120 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.33 in profit.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Lions vs. Texans odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Lions vs. Texans
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Lions -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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