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Lions vs. Chiefs SGP Odds, Predictions Week 1: Fade the Shootout Hype With This Same Game Parlay

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: September 7, 2023 7:08 PM EDT • 3 min 1 sec read.

Tight end Travis Kelce and running back Jerick McKinnon celebrate a touchdown as we share our favorite Lions vs. Chiefs SGP pick.
Tight end Travis Kelce and running back Jerick McKinnon celebrate a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

As the 2023 NFL season starts, we look at if outsized expectations for a shootout in the NFL's opener are creating opportunities in betting markets for our Lions-Chiefs SGP picks, based on the best NFL odds.

The Detroit Lions travel to the belly of the beast at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday to open the 2023 NFL season against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.

There’s plenty of hype surrounding this game and the return of football as we look at our Lions vs. Chiefs predictions and Thursday Night Football prop picks, but given Jared Goff’s road struggles last season, will this matchup fall short of the lofty expectations for a high-scoring affair?

Here are our best Lions vs. Chiefs SGP picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lions vs. Chiefs SGP predictions Week 1

  • Under 53.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jerick McKinnon anytime touchdown scorer (+175) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jahmyr Gibbs 25-plus receiving yards (-188) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: +840 via FanDuel

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SGP predictions for Lions vs. Chiefs

Under 53.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After many long months without football, of course we’d all love to see a scoring bonanza in the first game with the NFL back in our lives. But is this inflated number getting to wishful-thinking territory on Thursday night?

For as explosive as the Kansas City offense was in 2022, only seven Chiefs games cleared a 53.5-point total last year. Eight games cleared the threshold for Detroit last season, although it only happened twice in eight Detroit road games as Jared Goff lacked consistency away from Ford Field. No Chris Jones for KC could make Goff’s life easier, but the Arrowhead crowd will be daunting.

FanDuel lists the Under 53.5 with -115 odds. With -110 odds on the same number, DraftKings holds a slight odds edge on this leg of the SGP.

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Jerick McKinnon anytime touchdown scorer (+175) ⭐⭐⭐

Down the stretch run of the 2022 season, Jerick McKinnon proved to be a reliable red-zone target, so Patrick Mahomes simply kept targeting him. McKinnon finished the regular season on a streak of six consecutive games with at least one receiving touchdown, catching multiple TD passes in a game on multiple occasions over that span.

Though Travis Kelce is going to test his knee before game time to try and give it a go on Thursday night, any compromising risk to his goal-line presence should only mean more of an opportunity for a trusted outlet like McKinnon. Though the Chiefs have other running backs if they’re looking to pound it between the tackles, I look for McKinnon to be on the field in red-zone passing situations.

McKinnon’s anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel are +175, compared to +185 at DraftKings. At either shop, pairing the game total Under with a touchdown scorer bet fades correlation to boost our SGP odds.

Jahmyr Gibbs 25-plus receiving yards (-188) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs should be used frequently as a receiver, so we’re looking for him to break at least one chunk play through the air on Thursday in order to clear his modest receiving total.

FanDuel offers Gibbs’ receiving total at 31.5 yards with -110 odds (pushing the overall parlay odds to +1079), but it also lists an alternate total of 25-plus yards (-188) that gets this overall parlay to +840. That’s where we decided to plant our flag for this SGP.

While we’re taking the safer route, knowing Gibbs’ explosiveness, it makes sense to consider the more daring angles, too. At DraftKings, pairing Over 29.5 yards with our other SGP picks pushes the total parlay odds to +900. 

Lions-Chiefs SGP picks made 09/07/2023 at Noon ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.