Justin Herbert Player Prop Picks: Wild Card Weekend Predictions & Odds vs. Texans

Justin Herbert makes his second career playoff start and is still searching for his first playoff win when he leads the Los Angeles Chargers into a wild card weekend matchup against the Houston Texans on Saturday as 3-point favorites.
The Chargers-Texans matchup is the first of the six wild card games played this weekend, with kickoff from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, set for 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+).
The plays below and our NFL playoff bracket predictions are both part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.
Justin Herbert prop bets: Wild Card Weekend
NFL odds as of Friday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Justin Herbert prop pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Herbert prop pick: Under 0.5 interceptions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Herbert prop pick: Longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Justin Herbert Wild Card Weekend player props
NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Justin Herbert Under 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The total for this Chargers-Texans game is the lowest of all six wild-card matchups, reaching as low as 41.5 at BetMGM on Friday. Thus, with Los Angeles having a projected total of 22.5 (suggesting they will score three touchdowns), there is value in this Under play.
The Texans ranked in the top 10 with 1.92 points per drive allowed this season. Houston also allowed the lowest completion percentage (58.9%) this season, and I expect it to snap Herbert’s four-game streak of multiple passing touchdowns.
The Under is juiced as high as -144 (carrying a 59.02% implied probability) at FanDuel. Thus, I am taking advantage of the best price at Caesars, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.
Best odds: -125 via Caesars | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Justin Herbert Under 0.5 interceptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Herbert has thrown an interception in two of the last four games, but prior to that he had gone 11 consecutive games without a pick.
Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, Herbert finished with his lowest-ever interception rate (0.6%). That goes hand-in-hand with the low-volume passing approach that saw him average a career-low 227.6 passing yards per game.
Once again, this Under carries a high 60.32% implied win probability based on FanDuel’s -152 odds at the high end of the market. The best price is at bet365, the only one of our best sports betting sites charging less than -125 odds.
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
Justin Herbert longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐
Herbert has gone over this projected total in back-to-back games and four of the previous six.
While he averaged a career low in passing yards per game (227.6), the Chargers had an explosive passing attack, as Herbert’s 7.7 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per completion were career-bests.
Houston’s defense has an elite completion percentage allowed but is susceptible to the deep ball. The Texans rank 25th in yards per completion (11.5), which suggests there is value in Herbert completing at least one 36-yard pass.
BetMGM and DraftKings have a slightly higher O/U at 36.5, and FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps charging less than -115 juice for a total of 35.5.
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
Justin Herbert prop bet odds
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