Chargers vs. Texans Touchdown Picks & Odds: NFL Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend gets underway with a showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans. We're getting great value on a few anytime touchdown bets, even if the game features the lowest total of all six Wild Card Weekend playoff contests.
Sure, the total for this game is just 42.5, but we're targeting three players who are most likely to find the end zone with our best Chargers vs. Texans touchdown picks.
The nice aspect of a game with a low total is you can find star players getting relatively long touchdown odds, and that's what we're seeing for this Saturday afternoon clash (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS) at NRG Stadium.
Let's dive right in to this trio of TD props as part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.
Chargers vs. Texans touchdown picks
Odds as of Friday and subject to change.
- J.K Dobbins touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Nico Collins touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Mixon touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best Chargers vs. Texans touchdown props
J.K Dobbins anytime TD ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 43.48%
I highlighted Dobbins as one of my favorite anytime touchdown scorer bets for the entire weekend, so it feels right to start with him.
Dobbins is getting a very strong 0.66 touchdown projection for this showdown with the Texans, which makes these +130 odds far too long to ignore.
In fact, Dobbins' TD projection is nearly identical to Joe Mixon's number, and we're also featuring him at -120. That should tell you just how good this price is for Dobbins.
I already smashed it for a full unit myself. We're backing the Chargers to win with our NFL playoff bracket predictions, and Dobbins is sure to play a significant role.
Nico Collins anytime TD ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 40%
Collins endured a bit of an inconsistent season. He started off the campaign red-hot, racking up 567 receiving yards in his first four full games and one abbreviated effort.
He then missed a little more than a month before returning to record only 439 receiving yards across his final seven games.
However, Collins did finish the season with seven touchdowns, and he remains Houston's alpha with both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell done for the season. His TD projection reflects that status, as it's the fifth-highest among receivers this weekend.
There isn't as much value in these odds, as I'd like to make this a four-star pick. But it's still a very solid bet.
Joe Mixon anytime TD ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
Mixon's TD projection might be only slightly better than Dobbins' forecast, but it's among the best for any running back involved in Wild Card Weekend. Mixon's 0.68 projection is worse than only Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Bucky Irving, and all of them are trading at much shorter odds to find the end zone.
The tailback's relatively long odds are likely the result of his struggles in recent weeks, as he hasn't scored since Week 13 and has registered only one touchdown over his last six games.
However, I'll trust Mixon's projection for Saturday's playoff game, which represents more of a callback to his performances earlier this season. Mixon found the end zone 11 times in his first eight matchups this year. He'll do so again on Saturday with the Texans' campaign on the line.
Expert Chargers vs. Texans picks
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Chargers vs. Texans game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 11
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chargers -3 (+100 via bet365)
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