Jayden Daniels TNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Can Jayden Daniels break his six-game stretch without a rushing touchdown when the Commanders visit the Eagles on TNF?

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 14, 2024 7:47 AM EST • 5 min read

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels carries the ball as we make our best Jayden Daniels TNF player prop bets. — Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels carries the ball. Photo by: Amber Searls-Imagn Images.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders look to shrug off a tough loss last week when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles as road underdogs on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from Lincoln Financial Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).

Daniels is coming off his worst statistical game of the season in last week’s loss to the Steelers
Washington scored 27 or more points for the sixth time this season last week, but was also the first time it lost when doing so (5-1)
The Commanders face an Eagles team that is 8-1 in their last nine Thursday games

Our Thursday Night Football odds have the Commanders as 3.5-point road underdogs against the Eagles with an O/U of 48.5 points, and we factor that into our analysis for our Jayden Daniels TNF player prop bets as we continue our Week 11 NFL predictions.

Kickoff for the Commanders-Eagles matchup is set for 8:15 p.m. from Lincoln Financial Field. Read on for more analysis of this game in our Commanders vs. Eagles prediction.

Jayden Daniels prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

Jayden Daniels touchdown pick: Daniels anytime touchdown scorer (+200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
Jayden Daniels Under 226.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Jayden Daniels Over 19.5 completions (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Jayden Daniels touchdown pick vs. Eagles

Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown scorer (+200) ⭐⭐

The Steelers did a masterful job of keeping Daniels in the pocket last week, as his three rushing attempts and five rushing yards were both season-lows in games he started and finished this year.

No rushing props are available for any Commanders player as we await word on Brian Robinson Jr.’s injury status (he was a limited participant in Tuesday’s walkthrough). But this becomes a much more confident play if Robinson is ruled out, as I expect the Commanders' head coach to devise a game plan that utilizes Daniels’ legs much more this week.

Despite Daniels’ struggles throwing the ball last week (he had a season-low 50% completion percentage), Washington still managed three rushing touchdowns.

Daniels has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week 4, but he has had eight or more rushing attempts in three of the six games since then, making this one-in-three chance that he does find the endzone based on BetMGM’s +200 odds a great value.

If Daniels does score, a $10 winning wager would net $20 in profits.

Best odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%

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Jayden Daniels player props

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jayden Daniels under 226.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐

This is not an overreaction to an Eagles defense holding the Cowboys to their fewest passing yard total (49) since 2001, as I recognize Dallas was in a tough spot with Cooper Rush taking over under center for the injured Dak Prescott.

Long before that dominant defensive performance, Philadelphia entered last week ranked in the top four in passer rating allowed, passing yards allowed per attempt, and fantasy points via passing allowed since Week 3.

Daniels has not topped 209 passing yards in back-to-back weeks, so this Under is worth a three-star flier. Philip Wood is in agreement in his Commander vs. Eagles TNF prop bets.

Under backers are getting the best number and price at FanDuel, as Caesars’ O/U is three yards lower at 223.5.

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

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Jayden Daniels Over 19.5 completions (-122) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a four-star play despite backing the Under on Daniel’s passing yards, as his 71.4 Total QBR (which ranks fourth in the league) is a big by-product of his solid completion percentage.

Daniels has led the Commanders to the second-most efficient offense in the league this season, and has completed 20-plus passes in five of nine games he started and finished.

Daniels went 1-for-8 for 28 yards when the Steelers pressured him last week. But he completed 12 of 16 quick passes (when he threw in 2.5 seconds or less), and given its success last week, I expect another game plan revolving around a short passing attack.

This Over is juiced as high as -128 (carrying a 56.14% implied probability) at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best number at FanDuel.

Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%

Commanders vs. Eagles odds

Thursday Night Football game info

Matchup: Commanders vs. Eagles
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
How to watch: Prime Video
Weather: 45 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NE
Favorite: Eagles -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”