Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & TNF Picks
The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) and New York Giants (1-2) face off tonight in an NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off from MetLife Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
- The Cowboys are favored by 5.5 points to beat the Giants by the latest Thursday Night Football odds
- Dallas is priced among the favorites by the Super Bowl odds entering tonight's matchup
- CeeDee Lamb remains near the top of the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds ahead of Week 4
As part of our NFL Week 4 predictions, here are our Cowboys vs. Giants prediction, odds, and expert picks for tonight.
Cowboys vs. Giants odds movement: Thursday Night Football
This game opened at Cowboys -5.5 across most of our best NFL betting sites, and even after a busy week of wagers, it remains there in the hours ahead of kickoff.
Dallas was priced as a 7-point favorite in the initial lookahead line at bet365, but we saw this point spread move as many as three points in the other direction.
Our Cowboys vs. Giants early picks pounced on a line of Cowboys -4.5, as did our prediction below, though we've seen the line inch closer toward the road favorites as kickoff nears tonight.
Best Cowboys vs. Giants picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Cowboys -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Giants ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Rico Dowdle Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cowboys vs. Giants against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Cowboys to cover the spread: -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
The Cowboys were as high as -5.5 on Monday morning at some of our best sports betting apps. But the line is now uniform across the board at -4.5, and I don't agree with that movement.
Giants getting too much respect for their schedule
Dallas trailed the Baltimore Ravens 28-6 entering the fourth quarter last week. But the more significant reason for this line movement is how New York’s opponents have been faring since playing the Giants.
For example, the Minnesota Vikings (New York’s Week 1 opponent) are one of five remaining unbeaten teams. The Giants’ narrow Week 2 loss to the Commanders also suddenly doesn't look as bad after Washington beat the Cincinnati Bengals in a road Monday Night Football matchup during Week 3.
And the Giants needed to hold on for dear life to beat a Cleveland Browns team that's failed to score more than 18 points in any of its first three games for the first time since 2010.
Additionally, Cleveland is off to its worst start (1-2) in five seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski, who's not among the top 10 in the NFL Coach of the Year odds.
Giants can’t expose Cowboys’ run defense
You don't need to be a football savant to know why Dallas has been struggling in back-to-back weeks.
The Cowboys have allowed 464 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns during their two-game losing streak. They've also given up three rushing touchdowns in consecutive games for the first time in franchise history.
However, Dallas is facing a Giants team that recorded the third-fewest rushing yards from their running backs (45) in the Week 1 loss to the Vikings. And of their three running backs and quarterback Daniel Jones, only one player (Devin Singletary) has been averaging better than 3.5 yards per carry.
However, Gary Pearson believes Singletary will still be leaned on heavily as part of his Cowboys vs. Giants TNF prop picks.
Dak owns divisional opponents
Perhaps I should have led with the fact that Dallas is 13-1 straight up in its last 14 games against New York, and the club won both of last year’s matchups by a combined score of 89-17.
Dak Prescott’s success against NFC East teams includes more than just games against the Giants. He's 25-8 against the spread in divisional games as a favorite, with his team covering 73% of contests against NFC East opponents.
The Cowboys also do well to avoid losing streaks, especially in games in which they're favored. Dallas is looking for its 12th straight win as a favorite in games following a loss. It's 10-1 ATS in its previous 11 road games after a defeat.
All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the 4.5-point spread. But some like FanDuel charge juice as high as -115 to back the favorites. Thus, I'm taking advantage of the best price at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.
The Cowboys' signal-caller might play well, but in his Dak Prescott TNF player prop bets, Andrew Brennan thinks the Under is the right play on many of Prescott's props amid a potential blowout.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Cowboys vs. Giants player prop
Rico Dowdle Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Not only have the Cowboys been poor at stopping the run, but they need to look long and hard at what can get their own running game going.
Dallas ranks 29th in rushing yards, yards per rush, and amount of 10-plus-yard rushes. However, with a positive game script much more likely than the last two weeks when the Cowboys fell into significant early holes against the New Orleans Saints and Ravens, Dallas should be leaning on the running game more Thursday.
Rico Dowdle’s total touches (31) aren't much higher than Ezekiel Elliott’s 24 through two games. But Elliott's workload has diminished from 10 touches in Week 1 to just three last week.
As a result, Dowdle should go over this projected total for the first time this season, as he's logged eight or fewer carries every week to this point. Our Esten McLaren also names him in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for TNF.
The implied probability for Dowdle notching nine-plus carries in this game is as high as 60.78% based on DraftKings’ -155 odds. Therefore, the best return on your investment is found at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would net $7.14 in profit.
Brenden Schaeffer is also eyeing a significant contribution from Dowdle in his Cowboys vs. Giants TNF parlay.
If you're looking for a Giants player to bet on, we dove into that side in our Malik Nabers touchdown picks.
Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%
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Cowboys vs. Giants odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Cowboys vs. Giants
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: Amazon Prime Video
- Weather: 72 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 7-mph southerly winds
- Favorite: Cowboys (-225 via BetMGM)
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