Cowboys vs. Giants Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 4
The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants meet in a clash of 1-2 NFC East rivals on Thursday Night Football. The Cowboys are favorites by the Thursday Night Football odds.
- Dallas has started 0-2 at home for the first time since 2010, but looks to get right in this road matchup
- The Cowboys dominated the two head-to-head matchups last season
- Whoever loses this game will see their division odds take a massive hit
Our Cowboys vs. Giants early picks and predictions call for the favorites to cover the NFL Week 4 odds given their recent dominance in this rivalry.
My early Cowboys vs. Giants prediction: Cowboys -4.5
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Prediction: Cowboys -4.5
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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The Cowboys beat the Giants by a combined score of 89-17 in the two head-to-head matchups last season, including a 40-0 road win in Week 1, which was not only the biggest shutout loss in this rivalry but was also Dallas' biggest margin of victory in a shutout in franchise history.
Though Tommy DeVito started the second matchup between these teams, Dallas held Daniel Jones to an 8.7 QBR and a 3.7 yards per attempt average in the first meeting, while allowing just 63 scrimmage yards to Saquon Barkley.
The Cowboys' defense has also allowed 464 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns during the two-game losing skid, but New York’s 20th-ranked rushing offense is not built to take advantage of that.
New York is overvalued in this matchup after beating up on a banged-up Cleveland Browns squad. I am especially not buying a Giants defensive resurgence after allowing 1.9 yards per play, 34 passing yards, and five first downs in the first half.
Cleveland was playing without three starting offensive linemen and had to move six-time Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio to left tackle because of the injuries.
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Cowboys vs. Giants live odds
See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 4 game.
Moneyline
- Cowboys best odds: -225 via bet365 | Implied probability: 69.23%
- Giants best odds: +205 via Caesars | Implied probability: 32.79%
There is a big 25-cent gap between bet365’s -225 moneyline odds and the -250 odds at Caesars and BetMGM. But given that these odds do not break the bank and that the Cowboys have won 13 of the last 14 matchups between these teams, expect these odds to increase as Dallas will likely be a popular play in many bettors’ moneyline parlays.
In addition, New York’s two teams, the Jets and Giants, are a combined 4-28 SU in primetime night games since 2019.
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Spread
- Cowboys best odds: -4.5 (-115) via FanDuel
- Giants best odds: +5.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Anytime one team looks so bad in a loss (Dallas trailed 28-6 entering the fourth quarter last week) and one team is off the momentum of a big win, the odds are likely to go in the direction of the team coming off the positive week.
The first big line move was FanDuel dropping from -5.5 to -4.5, which means more of our best sports betting sites are likely to follow suit. But the Cowboys are too big of a public team to see this line keep free-falling. Eventually, there will be some buyback on Dallas, especially since it has covered five straight games against divisional opponents.
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Over/Under
- Over best odds: 43.5 (-110) via BetMGM
- Under best odds: 44 (-110) via DraftKings
Seven of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 44-plus points scored. However, there is likely to be some up-and-down movement to this total all week, as these two teams have conflicting trends in terms of their season-long O/U records (the Cowboys are 3-0 to the Over while the Giants are 3-0 to the Under).
While Dallas’ defensive struggles suggest the Over should be the more popular play, the fact that this game is played on a short week usually catches the interest of Under backers.
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How to watch Cowboys vs. Giants
- When: Thursday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 68 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph SE
- Favorite: Cowboys (-250 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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