Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction, Super Bowl Picks & Odds Today: Why You Can't Bet Against Kansas City
With just two days left until this Super Bowl 2025 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, we're running out of ways to break down a matchup that we saw on this very stage two years ago.
There are a few key differences in this Chiefs vs. Eagles rematch on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, and my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction and Super Bowl picks focus on the biggest change for Kansas City's evolving offense.
I also broke down the latest Super Bowl odds which show the Chiefs as 1-point favorites on the point spread and -115 favorites on the moneyline.
Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction: Feb. 7
Here are our NFL picks for the Super Bowl with confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Best pick: Xavier Worthy Over 62.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Chiefs -1 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Who will win the Super Bowl: Chiefs (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Friday's best Super Bowl pick
Xavier Worthy Over 62.5 rushing + receiving yards
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
It took a while for him to get going, despite scoring in Week 1, but Worthy has emerged as a critical piece in this Chiefs' passing attack as a rookie - and not just as a deep-ball merchant, either.
Since fellow speedster Hollywood Brown returned to the lineup in Week 16, Worthy has feasted in the short-passing game for Kansas City's RPO-heavy offense. He's averaging 11 targets plus rush attempts in his last five weeks, and he leads the Chiefs' starters in target share (25.4%) over their last four games excluding Week 18.
He's cleared this combined prop total in four of his last five games, including a 101-yard effort in the AFC Championship, and I love his chances of getting involved in a big way on Sunday. I'm also tempted by his +1200 odds via BetMGM to score the last touchdown.
Chiefs vs. Eagles spread prediction
Chiefs to cover the spread -1
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
Worthy's emergence in the passing game is compelling for those betting on Super Bowl player props, but it's also one of the main reasons why I like Kansas City in this matchup.
The Eagles' defense deserves praise for its ability to shut down explosive passing attacks and force teams to survive by dinking and dunking down the field. But that's exactly how Mahomes and his top targets - led by Worthy and Travis Kelce - have tormented defenses all season long with Andy Reid dialing up the perfect times to take a shot.
Philly's plan of attack is predicated on building an early lead and forcing teams to get impatient offensively. Mahomes is the master of the long game. While this one should be close, I'm not betting against Kansas City having the answers to the test when it matters most, especially not with a Super Bowl three-peat on the line.
Who will win the Super Bowl?
The Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. You know it, I know it, and the best sportsbooks know it - it's why Kansas City is still favored despite Philadelphia drawing more betting action behind a better roster. None of that matters when Mahomes, Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo are operating in tandem as perhaps the best trio in NFL history.
Today's Super Bowl odds
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
Chiefs (-115 via Caesars)
As kickoff nears, the moneyline is getting tighter with the Chiefs now dealing as just -115 favorites at Caesars after opening between -125 and -130 across the best NFL betting sites. Kansas City was the underdog in the last two Super Bowls before ultimately winning outright to set up this year's potential three-peat.
Super Bowl game info
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 9
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- Favorite: Chiefs (-115 via Caesars)
- TV: FOX, Fubo (streaming)
- Halftime show: Kendrick Lamar
- Anthem: Jon Batiste
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