Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 8: Will Mahomes Shred Denver Defense?
It’s an AFC West rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos after the two teams met in Week 6, and KC QB Patrick Mahomes having another big showing against Denver is one of our top Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions. We shop for the best NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites when making our NFL picks.
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) and Denver Broncos (2-5) play for the second time in three weeks, after KC topped Denver 19-8 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. While the first-place Chiefs are looking to further cement their lead in the AFC West, the Broncos are looking to climb out of last place with a win.
Still, after a low-scoring Thursday night game in their first matchup, can the Chiefs open up their offense and run up the score against the Broncos?
Here is our best Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction
Patrick Mahomes Over 274.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the Oct. 12 matchup, we saw a surprising lack of offensive punch from Kansas City as it scored only 19 points against one of the most generous defenses in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes played a game riddled with miscues as Denver secured a red-zone interception of the Chiefs’ gunslinger to help limit his productivity.
Although the Chiefs covered the spread in that 19-8 win, the short week seemed to get the better of Kansas City’s offensive cohesion. Travis Kelce had a standard strong day and Rashee Rice jumped onto the radar with a solid performance. Otherwise, no Kansas City wide receiver totaled more than 22 yards. Yet, despite the limitations, Patrick Mahomes still cleared 300 yards passing in the game.
Snowy conditions are anticipated for Sunday morning in Denver, but the precipitation is largely expected to clear out of the area by game time. Although the Broncos secondary played inspired against Jordan Love and the Packers last week, this unit is still allowing an average of 257.4 passing yards per game to opponents (30th in NFL).
Mahomes has only cleared this passing total three times on the year, but he’s done it in consecutive games and should look to pour on points against an overmatched divisional rival in this one.
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Chiefs vs. Broncos best odds
DraftKings (-115)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahomes Over 274.5 passing yards | Mahomes Over 287.5 passing yards | Mahomes Over 274.5 passing yards | Mahomes Over 274.5 passing yards | Mahomes Over 285.5 passing yards |
| -115 | -114 | -115 | -115 | -110 |
FanDuel’s odds are an outlier compared to the rest of our recommended sportsbooks. Unless you’re fading our pick and betting Under, stay away from FanDuel’s line on this prop. The 285.5-yard line at bet365 is not much better, though the -110 odds are the best on the board.
Stick with DraftKings, BetMGM, or Caesars for this prop as all three books check in with -115 odds on Over 274.5 passing yards for Mahomes.
Chiefs vs. Broncos odds
Chiefs vs. Broncos odds analysis
Kansas City opened as an 8.5-point road favorite, but has seen the number dip to between -7 and -7.5 across our best sportsbooks. Despite that, 54% of bettors remain locked in on the Chiefs.
The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped slightly to 47 at the majority of our recommended sportsbooks. At this time, 48% of wagers have come in on Over.
Chiefs vs. Broncos game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 29, at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 26 degrees, 5 mph winds, 2% precipitation
Chiefs-Broncos prediction made 10/27/2023 at 4 p.m. ET
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