Bills vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 7: Will Offensive Struggles Carry Over?

The New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills in what projects to be an AFC East mismatch, and our top Bills vs. Patriots predictions are calling for the Buffalo defense to hold the struggling New England offense in check. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

In their 14-9 victory over the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills were just one yard away from dropping to 3-3 instead of improving to 4-2, as the Giants failed to convert on a play from the one-yard line on the final play.

The New England Patriots have had a challenging start to the season, marked by a 1-5 record, their worst since 1995 during the tenure of Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells. Furthermore, the Patriots have now experienced a five-game stretch with 17 or fewer points, a first in the era of head coach Bill Belichick.

Here is our best Bills vs. Patriots prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Patriots prediction

Under 41.5 (-110 via Caesars, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After two poor offensive performances in a row from the Bills, where they averaged 17 points per game against the Giants and Jaguars, head coach Sean McDermott had to answer questions about whether there would be a change in who calls plays, per Bills beat writer Jay Skurski.

In theory, Buffalo should be able to bounce back against the Patriots, as since 2020 (including the playoffs), Josh Allen has averaged 2.7 touchdowns, 283 yards, a 65.9% completion percentage, less than one turnover per game, and a 113 passer rating versus New England. However, Allen is also nursing a sore shoulder that required X-rays after the win against the Giants, so a higher emphasis on the running game should be in order.

New England’s touchdown in the third quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders last week was its first in 40 drives, and the Patriots have averaged just 6.7 points per game through a three-game losing streak. New England is averaging a paltry 0.99 points per drive (worst in the NFL), scoring on just 18.3% of its offensive possessions.

Given that Buffalo has covered four straight games against New England and the Patriots have the second-worst point differential (-80) in the NFL, there is reason to believe the Bills could exceed this total on their own. However, Buffalo has yet to establish a consistent second option in the passing game outside of Stefon Diggs, as no other Bills receiver is averaging more than 3.5 receptions per game.

Thus, we expect Belichick to devise a game plan that limits Diggs’ offensive output and forces Buffalo to beat him with secondary options.

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Bills vs. Patriots best odds

Caesars, DraftKings, bet365 (-110)

While all of the best sports betting sites are aligned with an O/U of 41.5 points, we are choosing between DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 as our go-to shops, as it is cheaper to back the Under at their -110 odds compared to the -115 price found at BetMGM and FanDuel.

If the weather forecast in Foxborough worsens at the expected morning rain spills over into the afternoon, this total would likely come down further, so we are taking advantage of what we believe is the best number while we can, especially since the Under is 9-1 in Buffalo’s previous 10 road games.

Bills vs. Patriots odds

Bills vs. Patriots odds analysis

FanDuel opened its total at 43.5 late Sunday afternoon before the Bills-Giants game kicked off, but the line dropped to 42.5 by Monday morning after Buffalo’s shaky offensive performance.

While most of the best sports betting apps saw a steady decline from an opening number of 42.5 down to the current number of 41.5, DraftKings interestingly had its total spike to 44 late Monday morning before Under backers were responsible for dropping the number swiftly. There is near dead-even two-way action on the total thus far, as it is split 51/49 in favor of the Over.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering a spread of Bills -9, while all other sportsbooks are in unison at -8.5. Buffalo fluctuated between -8.5 and -9 on Monday morning at FanDuel and reached highs of -9.5 at bet365, BetMGM, and Caesars at various points on Monday. Since then, Patriots backers have been more involved, but that is likely sharp action, as the early wagers are still more than 3/1 (77/23) in support of Buffalo.

New England is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games as underdogs.

Bills vs. Patriots game info

• When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1:00 p.m. ET
• Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 58 degrees, 24% PoP, wind 15 mph WNW

Bills-Patriots prediction made 10/18/2023 at 6:31 a.m. ET

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