49ers vs. Vikings Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 7: Monday Night Football
The San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings enter their Monday Night Football meeting with injury concerns as we make our top 49ers vs. Vikings prediction based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
In Week 6, the Cleveland Browns halted the San Francisco 49ers' impressive 15-game winning streak in regular season play. This defeat also signified the first loss for quarterback Brock Purdy as a regular season starter. The 49ers haven't experienced back-to-back regular-season losses since Weeks 6 and 7 of the previous year.
Meanwhile, in Week 6, the Minnesota Vikings clinched their second victory of the season by defeating the Chicago Bears with a 19-13 score on the road. The Vikings have struggled to secure wins in their three home games in 2023. Notably, all six of Minnesota's games this season have been decided by a single possession.
Check out our Brock Prudy Player Props and our 49ers-Vikings Player Props to go along with our best 49ers-Vikings prediction for Monday Night Football (MNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Vikings prediction: Monday Night Football
49ers -6.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: This spread has now risen to -7 across all of our best sportsbooks and our Brenden Schaeffer still likes that line for his 49ers-Vikings parlay.
The Browns held the 49ers to season-lows in points (17), rushing yards (108), and passing yards (107) in last week’s triumph. San Francisco’s 215 yards were the fewest in any game with Kyle Shanahan as its head coach, while its 47% quarterback pressure percentage allowed was the highest, its eight 3-and-out drives were tied for the most, and its 3.9 yards per play were the team’s fewest in the last 63 games.
Too many bettors will look at those statistics and assume those negative trends will carry over into Week 7. First, Cleveland outshines Minnesota in nearly every statistical category regarding defense. Second, a soaking rain played a significant role, making it difficult for Purdy to grip the ball (his 44% completion percentage fell well below his previous career-low of 63%). Lastly, injuries took a toll on the team as running back Christian McCaffrey suffered a rib/oblique injury, and Deebo Samuel sustained a shoulder injury early in the first half. This made it difficult for Shanahan to devise a new game plan on the fly in their absence.
Shanahan is one of the sport's most respected head coaches and play-callers. McCaffrey remains questionable for Monday, and Samuel has been ruled out, but Shanahan's had time to bring other players up to speed with the plan, and giving them first-team repetitions will prepare them better.
The 49ers' defense should have its way with a Vikings offense held to zero offensive points in the second half by a poor Bears team. That is a huge red flag for an offensive line graded as PFF’s No. 1 run-blocking unit and No. 3 in pass protection entering the week.
If Samuel and/or McCaffrey are out, look for Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores to bring pressure more often, as Minnesota’s 57.9% blitz rate is 14.5% more than the next closest team. However, in Week 3, when he was blitzed on a season-high 74% of dropbacks, Purdy was 17-of-27 passing for 236 yards and two touchdowns (he also took two sacks).
This is an excellent buy-low spot for San Francisco against a Minnesota team whose gaudy defensive statistics last week (five sacks, three takeaways, a defensive touchdown) were primarily a product of playing against a backup quarterback after Justin Fields suffered a thumb injury. In addition, Kirk Cousins has averaged just 15.3 fantasy points per game in primetime since 2019, and he should struggle again without Justin Jefferson to throw to.
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49ers vs. Vikings best odds
BetMGM (-115)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | -7 | -6.5 | -7 | -7 |
| -120 | -104 | -115 | +100 | +100 |
The difference between a spread of 6.5 and 7.0 points in the NFL is so big that it is worth researching prices at all the best sports betting apps. At first glance, BetMGM is the no-brainer go-to shop for our 49ers wager, as it charges the least juice among all sportsbooks with a spread of -6.5.
However, FanDuel also has a price of -115 odds on the alternate spread of -6.5, which would also be a viable option compared to Caesars’ (-123) and bet365’s (-120) prices when manipulating the spread down.
49ers vs. Vikings odds for Monday Night Football
49ers vs. Vikings odds analysis
Caesars is the only sportsbook frozen at a line of 49ers -7 since its initial opening, as the other best sports betting sites have teetered back and forth between -6.5 and -7 all week. That variance is reflected in the near-even betting splits, as 55% of the wagers have backed the 49ers. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.
All books with the best sportsbook promos are in unison with a total 44 points, with DraftKings the only one slightly juiced to the Under (-112). FanDuel and BetMGM arrived at the 44-point total from an opening number of 44.5, while the other best sportsbooks have come down further from opening numbers of 45. There has been reverse line movement throughout the week, as the early splits are 59/41 in support of the Over. The Under has cashed in each of Minnesota’s last four games.
Monday Night Football game info
- When: Monday, Oct. 23, at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
49ers-Vikings prediction made 10/19/2023 at 4:02 p.m. ET
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