Jared Goff TNF Player Prop Picks: Touchdown Prediction & Odds vs. Packers

Jared Goff will look to lead his Detroit Lions to a season sweep of the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night.

The latest Thursday Night Football odds have the Lions favored by 3.5 points for the 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video) kickoff at Ford Field. What does that mean for Jared Goff TNF player prop picks with the Lions entering the week with a banged-up defense?

Our Mike Spector helps answer that question with his favorite Jordan Love TNF player prop bets. We also broke down this matchup further in our Packers vs. Lions prediction.

Goff threw for only 145 yards in his first meeting with the Packers. However, he only dropped back 22 times in that game, completing 18 of his passes in wet and windy conditions. Should we expect a more productive game from him at home in a controlled environment?

Jared Goff prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Jared Goff touchdown prediction: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jared Goff prop pick: Over 254.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jared Goff prop pick: Over 22.5 passing completions (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jared Goff player prop picks

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jared Goff Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.78%

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Goff has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in his last four home games, and yet, I’m going with his Under tonight.

The Lions are averaging 1.8 rushing touchdowns per contest this year. After abandoning the run in the red zone last week, and ending the game 2-of-5 from there, I expect the Lions to go back to what’s worked for them and run the ball almost exclusively in the red zone this week. My Packers vs. Lions TNF prop picks feature a Detroit running back finding the end zone.

Of course, with the Lions being the top-scoring team in the league, Goff is averaging two touchdown passes per game. The Packers are allowing 1.3 per contest, but in a game where the Lions may only score two or three touchdowns, I’ll take the Under, especially since BetMGM is offering a price of better than +100.

Our Packers vs. Lions parlay picks detail why one of Goff's passing touchdowns could land in the hands of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Jared Goff Over 254.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Two things prevented Goff from throwing for more than 200 yards in the first meeting: the weather and the Lions’ 24-3 lead early in the third quarter. But with Detroit’s defense suffering numerous injuries, Love should be much more efficient early in this game and keep his team close. That will require Goff to throw more than in the first meeting.

Goff threw for 412 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars and has topped 254 yards in six games. The Packers are allowing just 217.3 passing yards per game, but over the last three weeks, they’re allowing an average of 248.3.

The Lions love to run the ball, but the Packers’ weakness is their pass defense. Goff will take advantage of that, especially if this game is as close as our Mike Spector believes with his Packers vs. Lions TNF prediction.

Most of the best NFL prop betting sites have this total set at 254.5. While FanDuel has the number at 253.5, the sportsbook is asking -113 for the Over. Take the slightly better price at bet365 for one more yard.

Jared Goff Over 22.5 passing completions (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.49%

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Goff has only completed more than 22 passes in three games this season. Last week, he only completed 61.8% of his passes, tied for his second-lowest mark of the year.

This week, Goff takes on a team allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete over 67% of their attempts. Goff has completed 71.8% of his passes this season, and in a game that will be much closer than the first meeting between these two teams, I expect Goff to throw at least 29 passes for the fifth game in a row.

Goff can get 23 completions with just 29 attempts in this favorable matchup. Most of the best sports betting sites have this number set at 22.5. However, FanDuel offers the best price by a wide margin. The sportsbook’s price of -102 is the only one available for less than -125.

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