NFL Win Total Picks 2023: Chiefs Aim for 6th Consecutive Season with 12+ Wins

Will Patrick Mahomes be able to guide the Kansas City Chiefs to a sixth consecutive season with 12 or more wins? This question takes on even greater significance this year, considering that the Chiefs' win total is currently set at 11.5. As training camps gear up and preparations begin, the lines continue to shift, prompting us to examine the win total picks for each NFL team at our best sports betting apps.

It's the season for NFL futures, and we're already witnessing movement in the odds for the win totals of several teams. If you're interested in betting on the win total for your favorite team or taking a stand on an undervalued team, it's wise to bet these odds sooner rather than later. As we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, the market will continue to react and solidify these numbers.

While I'm an avid fan of the Minnesota Vikings, my loyalty will never interfere with my betting analysis. You'll see what I mean as we dive into the win totals for two teams in the NFC North.

Now, let's take a closer look at the win totals for all 32 NFL teams through our best sports betting sites.

NFL win total picks and predictions

Arizona Cardinals 4.5 wins (Over +100 via BetMGM, Under -105 via Caesars)

Expectations are quite low for the Cardinals in 2023 since they will begin their season without their franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray, who is still recovering from a torn ACL. There are varying opinions in the market regarding the Cardinals' win total, almost creating an arbitrage betting opportunity. The Cardinals are also considered favorites to have the worst record in the NFL this season, trading at +250 for this feat at bet365.

Atlanta Falcons 8.5 wins (Over -115 via FanDuel, Under +115 via Caesars)

If the NFL were a flag football league, the Falcons could be the top contenders for winning the Super Bowl, especially after drafting Bijan Robinson in the recent NFL Draft. The Falcons are busy gathering offensive talent with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson, but there are still some uncertainties surrounding second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. Several analysts are making a case for the Falcons winning the NFC South this season, but considering their win total of 8.5 and the Under trading at +115, I'd keep an eye on the Under here.

Baltimore Ravens 9.5/10.5 wins (Over -150 via DraftKings, Under -120 via FanDuel)

Despite initial concerns, the Ravens were ultimately able to re-sign Lamar Jackson, the former NFL MVP, which turned the tables in their favor. If they had lost Jackson in free agency, the Ravens' win total for this season would have been quite different. The Ravens are one of those teams where there is no consensus on the ideal win total they should trade at. If you're leaning towards the Over, the best price based on my projections is the 9.5 (-150) offered by DraftKings. On the other hand, if you're considering the Under, the best price would be the 10.5 (-120) available via FanDuel.

Buffalo Bills 10.5 wins (Over -130 via Caesars, Under +120 via DraftKings)

The win total for the Buffalo Bills might appear to be low, considering their success over the past few seasons, but it aligns perfectly with my projection of exactly 10.5 wins for the Bills. I would slightly lean towards the Under with the Bills, mainly due to the +120 odds available at DraftKings. Overall, I believe this win total is accurately priced and trading where it should be. For instance, I wouldn't recommend betting on the Under 10.5 wins (+110) at FanDuel - this demonstrates how closely contested this number is.

Carolina Panthers 7.5 wins (Over -114 via FanDuel, Under +110 via PointsBet)

The Carolina Panthers made some major moves this offseason, trading for the first overall pick to draft Bryce Young, the former Heisman-winning quarterback from Alabama. They also brought in Frank Reich as their new head coach. Based on my projection, I see the Panthers winning around 7.8 games this season, which puts the Over 7.5 wins at -119. While I'm eager to bet on the Over for their win total, I'd prefer to find a slightly better number than the -114 offered by FanDuel. Throughout the offseason, I'll be actively shopping for a better line on the Panthers' win total.

Chicago Bears 7.5 wins (Over -112 via FanDuel, Under +115 via Caesars)

In both of Justin Fields' first two seasons as the Bears' quarterback, they've failed to win more than six games. The last time the Bears surpassed this win total was with Mitch Trubisky. Nonetheless, the Bears have made an effort to provide Fields with more weapons this offseason, such as trading for DJ Moore, and there are murmurs of his improved passing. While I do believe the Bears will perform better this season, I'm not entirely convinced they'll surpass the 7.5 win total. Caesars offers a tempting +115 on the Under, and that's the side I would lean towards.

Cincinnati Bengals 11.5 wins (Over +115 via BetRivers, Under -125 via BetMGM)

The Bengals seem to be consistently emerging as the NFL's most underrated powerhouse. In the past two seasons, they triumphed in playoff games on the road, making it all the way to the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship. One could make a strong case that they're steadily improving, especially considering the youthful talent of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Frankly, I believe the Bengals have had their fill of these road playoff games and that's precisely why I'm picking them to have the best record in the NFL, with odds of +750 via bet365.

Cleveland Browns 9.5 wins (Over +125 via Caesars, Under -130 via BetMGM)

The Browns are up against tough competition in the AFC North, and let's face it, there won't be any cakewalk games within the division this season. A significant factor in the Browns' success hinges on Deshaun Watson's performance, considering he didn't quite live up to expectations in his debut season as their starting quarterback. Based on my projections, I see the Browns winning around 8.9 games this season. It puts the Under 9.5 wins at -145, making me lean slightly towards the Under with -130 odds available at BetMGM.

Dallas Cowboys 9.5 wins (Over -152 via BetRivers, Under +145 via Caesars)

There are varying win totals for the Cowboys in the market, with some of the best NFL betting sites offering them at 10.5 wins and others at 9.5 wins. Now, if you're leaning towards betting the Under, your initial inclination might be to go for the Under 10.5 wins. However, based on my projection of the Cowboys winning 9.6 games, the Under 9.5 wins actually holds higher expected value due to the juice. Here's the breakdown: With a projected win total of 9.6, the Under 9.5 (+145) at Caesars has an expected value of 16%, while the Under 10.5 wins at -150 via BetMGM only has an expected value of 5%.

Denver Broncos 8.5 wins (Over +106 via FanDuel, Under -106 via BetRivers)

The first year of the Russell Wilson experience with the Broncos was an absolute disaster. However, with the hiring of Sean Payton as the head coach in Year 2, the expectations are sky-high. So, the question is: Are you buying into the Broncos hype for the second offseason in a row, or are you looking to capitalize on another Under bet, considering Wilson will be leading the charge? Personally, I'm leaning towards the Under, especially with favorable odds of -106 available at BetRivers.

Detroit Lions 9.5 wins (Over -122 via FanDuel, Under +105 via PointsBet)

Believe it or not, the Lions are currently the biggest liability for several sportsbooks in terms of Super Bowl futures. Yes, we're talking about the Detroit Lions! Now, the burning question is how will they handle the shift from being the hunter to being the hunted? The pressure is definitely higher when you're at the top. The Lions find themselves as favorites with +145 odds to win the NFC North. However, when it comes to their win total, I don't have a firm stance either way. The pricing in the market appears reasonable to me. So, it's a bit of a coin toss at this time. 

Green Bay Packers 7.5 wins (Over -103 via BetRivers, Under +100 via FanDuel)

Being a fan of the Minnesota Vikings, it adds some extra weight when I say I'm intrigued by betting the Over on the Packers' win total. I believe there's a favorable narrative working in their favor, where the Packers are undervalued due to the shift from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. This transition isn't a reason to go for the Under; it's already factored in, and I think it's being overly emphasized. Based on my projections, I have the Packers winning around 8.2 games this season, which leads us to price the Over 7.5 wins at -150. 

Houston Texans 6.5 wins (Over +120 via Caesars, Under -130 via DraftKings)

The Houston Texans enter the season as one of my lowest power-rated teams, but that doesn't mean they automatically equate to an "Under" bet on their season win total. We're talking about 6.5 wins here, not winning the Super Bowl, and they have a new coach in Demeco Ryans and a franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud. Even with a poor power rating to start the season, we see value in the Texans' Over because of the +120 price point. I have the Texans projected to win 6.7 games this season, which allows us to price the Over 6.5 wins at -109.

Indianapolis Colts 6.5 wins (Over -125 via Caesars, Under +115 via PointsBet)

I believe this win total is the most challenging to assess as we enter the 2023 season because it's extremely difficult to predict what the Colts will achieve with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. My initial numbers tend to favor the Over on the win total of 6.5 at -125, but if I had to choose one win total to completely avoid in the current market, this would be it. I don't think we have a clear enough understanding of the Colts, primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding Richardson.

Jacksonville Jaguars 9.5 wins (Over -150 via BetMGM, Under +130 via PointsBet)

Year 1 of Doug Pederson working with Trevor Lawrence was a success for the Jaguars, as they won the AFC South and even secured a playoff victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars now enter the 2023 season with altered expectations, reflected in their win total. I don't believe the AFC South will be as easy for the Jaguars as some might expect, and considering the +130 odds available on the Under 9.5 wins, that's the direction I would lean with this bet.

Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 wins (Over -125 via BetRivers, Under +125 via Caesars)

Ever since Patrick Mahomes assumed the starting quarterback position in Kansas City, the defending Super Bowl champions have surpassed the win total of 11.5 wins in each of Mahomes' first five seasons. However, before you rush to your betting app to place an Over bet on the Chiefs (because, let's face it, who wouldn't want to bet the Over on them), this is one win total where I perceive significant value on the Under, based on my projections. It may feel like a nightmare to root against Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the Chiefs roster, but my projections indicate that the Chiefs are likely to win 10.8 games this season. Consequently, the Under 11.5 wins can be priced at -145.

Las Vegas Raiders 7.5 wins (Over +170 via Caesars, Under -180 via DraftKings)

The betting markets for the Raiders' win total are in a state of confusion due to the lack of clarity regarding Jimmy Garoppolo's ability to pass his physical and potentially become the team's starting quarterback. After running the numbers with Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, my projection for the Raiders stands at 7.6 wins. Consequently, we can price the Over 7.5 wins for the Raiders at -102, indicating a highly favorable expected value on a +170 price point. However, it's essential to exercise caution as this projection assumes Garoppolo's role as the Raiders' starting quarterback, which is not guaranteed. While some 6.5 win totals are available in the market, based on my projection of 7.6 wins, attacking the Over/Under on the 7.5 total was more advantageous considering the juice.

Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 wins (Over -120 via BetMGM, Under +110 via Caesars)

The season has yet to begin, making it the perfect time to hop on the Chargers' bandwagon and convince oneself that this year will be their year. With a healthier Justin Herbert expected and the addition of a new weapon in Quentin Johnston through the draft, optimism is high. However, despite these factors, I'm not succumbing to the allure this offseason. My numbers indicate that there is more value on the Under rather than the Over for the Chargers heading into this season.

Los Angeles Rams 6.5 wins (Over +105 via Caesars, Under -110 via PointsBet)

A year ago, the Rams faced setbacks with the loss of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and several players due to injuries. Despite these challenges, they managed to win five games while playing a first-place schedule. While the Rams may not be considered Super Bowl contenders, I believe they have the potential to surpass 6.5 wins this season, especially with a third-place schedule. I anticipate the Rams to win 7.4 games based on my projections, allowing us to price the Over 6.5 wins at -162.  

Miami Dolphins 9.5 wins (Over +105 via BetRivers, Under -110 via FanDuel)

The Dolphins made a significant trade for Jalen Ramsey during the offseason, demonstrating their complete commitment to winning a Super Bowl before Tua Tagovailoa's rookie contract expires. Despite being ranked higher in the power ratings than their 9.5 win total suggests, the Dolphins' win total remains at 9.5 due to the formidable challenges posed by their division and schedule. Personally, I lean towards the Under with the Dolphins, as my projection indicates they will win precisely 9 games this season.

Minnesota Vikings 8.5 wins (Over -121 via BetRivers, Under +116 via FanDuel)

How is it possible for a team that won 13 games in the previous season to have a win total of only 8.5 this year? Well, let me explain. The Vikings were exceptionally fortunate to have 13 wins last season, but when you examine their power rating, it becomes apparent that their true capabilities align with the win total of 8.5. In fact, when you factor in the juice for the Under at +116, it becomes the preferred side for me to bet on regarding the Vikings.

New England Patriots 7.5 wins (Over +105 via DraftKings, Under -110 via PointsBet)

Bill O'Brien's return to the New England Patriots as their offensive coordinator is a positive development, especially considering Mac Jones' struggles last season with Matt Patricia calling the plays. Despite having one of the NFL's top defensive units, the Patriots only secured 8 wins due to their lackluster offense. Based on my projections, I anticipate the Patriots to win 7.8 games this upcoming season. With DraftKings offering a +105 odds on the Over, that is the direction I would lean when betting on the Patriots' win total.

New Orleans Saints 9.5 wins (Over +120 via FanDuel, Under -120 via PointsBet)

Andy Dalton has been replaced by Derek Carr as the new starting quarterback for the Saints, after the team decided to sign Carr during the offseason. Opinions on whether Carr will improve the Saints roster vary, and this is reflected in the betting market. The juice is fluctuating, and there is even a win total of 8.5 available for the Saints, indicating a lack of consensus on their projected performance. Personally, I have priced the Over 9.5 wins for the Saints at +122 and the Under 9.5 wins at -122, indicating that the total is trading precisely where I believe it should be.

New York Giants 7.5 wins (Over +100 via DraftKings, Under -105 via PointsBet)

Brian Daboll led the Giants to the playoffs in his first season as their head coach, and no one is happier about it than Daniel Jones, as Daboll's presence contributed to Jones securing a lucrative contract this offseason. Similar to the Vikings, the Giants had a season where they won more games than their power rating suggested they should. For this reason, the Giants' win total for this season is set probably lower than the average fan would expect at 7.5. Based on my projection of 7.7 wins, and considering the juice on both sides of the total, I lean towards the Over, specifically with the DraftKings price of +100.

New York Jets 9.5 wins (Over -122 via FanDuel, Under +115 via Caesars)

Aaron Rodgers has brought his talent to the New York Jets, igniting Super Bowl aspirations within the team. However, the crucial question remains: Will Rodgers' presence as quarterback result in a three-win improvement for the Jets, who won 7 games last season? According to my initial projections, the answer is no. Instead, I project the Jets to win 8.8 games, indicating that the Under on the win total of 9.5 wins can be priced at -149. It's important to note that the Jets are not ranked low in my power ratings; rather, they face a challenging schedule that contributes to this projection.

Philadelphia Eagles 11.5 wins (Over +110 via Caesars, Under -110 via DraftKings)

The Eagles significantly exceeded their win total from last season, which was set at 10 wins. They led the NFL alongside the Chiefs with 14 wins and were given odds of +1600 to have the best record. The Eagles rank third in my power ratings to start the season, which is the highest in the NFC. However, based on my projection, they are expected to win only 10.4 games, falling short of their win total of 11.5 wins. Therefore, we can price the Under 11.5 wins at -178 based on this projection.

Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 wins (Over -135 via DraftKings, Under +130 via PointsBet)

It's year 2 for Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers have added Allen Robinson to provide Pickett with another weapon. The Steelers have been able to win nine games in consecutive seasons, but can they make it a third time to hit the Over on their win total? Well, my projections suggest they might, but it's a close call, with the Over priced at -105. Unfortunately, the juice on the Over is much higher in the betting markets (-135), making an Over bet on the Steelers not even possible. 

San Francisco 49ers 10.5 wins (Over -120 via DraftKings, Under +130 via Caesars)

Whether it's Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold, it seems like Kyle Shanahan has the magical touch to win games regardless of his starting quarterback. The 49ers faced a slew of injuries last season, leading to a revolving door at the quarterback position, yet they still impressively secured 13 wins. Will they surpass their win total again this season? It'll be a nail-biter as my projection places the 49ers at winning 10.3 games.

Seattle Seahawks 8.5 wins (Over -130 via DraftKings, Under +145 via PointsBet)

The Seahawks were one of my favorite win total bets last season, as they effortlessly surpassed their win total and earned me several units. Am I revisiting that success with another Over bet on the Seahawks' win total this season? Not quite. My projection places the Seahawks at winning 8.4 games, highlighting that there's more value in playing the Under, especially with a +145 available at PointsBet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 wins (Over +135 via PointsBet, Under -130 via BetMGM)

Tom Brady has retired, and now the Baker Mayfield experience has arrived in Tampa Bay as the former first overall pick takes on the role of starting quarterback for the Buccaneers. It's a significant downgrade at the quarterback position, and its impact is evident in their win total for the season, which is set at 6.5. The public sentiment towards Mayfield in the betting markets isn't particularly favorable, and this sentiment is reflected in the pricing. However, there appears to be an advantage with the Over on the Buccaneers' win total because of this narrative. Based on my projection, the Buccaneers are expected to win 7.2 games this season, and you can find the Over 6.5 trading at +135 on PointsBet.

Tennessee Titans 7.5 wins (Over +115 via BetRivers, Under -130 via BetMGM)

The Titans seem to be attempting to find a way to replace Ryan Tannehill without fully committing to it, as they drafted Malik Willis and followed it up with Will Levis in consecutive drafts. With top quarterback prospects Drake Maye and Caleb Williams on the draft board this season, and the Titans building a new stadium in the near future, it almost feels like a tanking scenario is in order. However, my projections actually favor the Over with 7.8 wins. Despite this, I would personally steer clear of this win total because I have concerns that the numbers may not fully capture the entire situation.

Washington Commanders 6.5 wins (Over +110 via BetMGM, Under -118 via FanDuel)

I can say with confidence that it's going to be quite challenging to convince me that the Commanders aren't intentionally aiming to tank this season. After all, with Caleb Williams, a truly generational quarterback prospect, hailing from the Washington D.C. area, it feels like the Commanders have set their sights on securing a high draft pick. I firmly believe that the Commanders will end up with the worst record in the NFL this season, and you can even find enticing odds of +1100 for that prediction on bet365.

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