QB Odds of Throwing for 5,000 Yards in 2023: Rare Value in Rarefied Feat
Three quarterbacks have thrown for over 5,000 passing yards the past two seasons. Here’s Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker’s take on the best NFL odds on whether a quarterback will throw for 5,000 passing yards in 2023.
The addition of a 17th regular-season game to the NFL schedule moved the goalposts, and three quarterbacks have thrown for over 5,000 passing yards in the past two seasons with the added game.
Still, it’s a rare-air feat, and nearly everything needs to go right for even the top QBs to pass this milestone.
Staying healthy, frequently playing in competitive, high-scoring games and having a capable collection of pass-catchers are just a few of the boxes to check.
As we turn our attention to the 2023 NFL season, bet365 has a betting market for quarterbacks to throw for 5,000 or more passing yards. But before you race to the window to back your favorite signal caller, take a walk with me through the numbers because I have a quartet of pivots to bolster your bankroll.
QB odds of throwing for 5,000 yards in 2023
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | +125 |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | +240 |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | +250 |
| Kirk Cousins | Vikings | +300 |
| Josh Allen | Bills | +300 |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | +550 |
| Jared Goff | Lions | +550 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | +600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Jets | +700 |
| Derek Carr | Raiders | +700 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | +700 |
Betting analysis
This is a one-way betting market with short odds, and I wouldn’t recommend placing a wager on any of the highlighted 11 quarterbacks to toss for more than 5,000 passing yards at the available prices.
If you’re approaching this from a recreational standpoint, maybe, but there are better and more responsible alternatives to bet on these quarterback.
Here’s an example of why I don’t recommend this market: a typical, two-way prop with a +125 price on one side will usually have -145 odds on the other. If one of our best NFL betting sites posted Mahomes at those prices for a passing-yard total of 5,000, the Under at -145 odds probably wouldn’t last.
Put differently, I’d expect experienced bettors to hammer the Under, and it would be re-listed at a much shorter number. In turn, the Over would then have much longer odds. Without the option to bet the Under, bet365 is far less vulnerable and won’t ever be forced to move the number because its price is wrong.
I’m fine with one-way betting markets if the prices are fair, but that isn’t the case here.
QB odds of throwing for 5,000 yards in 2023
Patrick Mahomes (+125)
No Tyreek Hill was no problem for Mahomes in 2022.
Mahomes topped 5,000 passing yards for the second time in five seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs starter, and he also double-dipped his resume with another Super Bowl win, MVP, and Super Bowl MVP serving.
Pretty, pretty good, Patrick.
It’s no surprise he’s sitting atop this odds list, but my projection of 4,747,7 passing yards this season has him coming well short of the required 5,000 benchmark. Additionally, not one of our best sports betting apps has his passing yards total close to 5,000 yards, either.
| Sportsbook | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards total | 4,800.5 | 4,700.5 | 4,675.5 | 4,750.5 | 4,800.5 |
| Over | -105 | -112 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
| Under | -115 | -112 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
With that in mind, I’m much more interested in backing the highlighted Over 4,675.5 passing yards through BetMGM, or pivoting to back Mahomes' odds to be the NFL's passing yards leader at +450 through FanDuel.
Justin Herbert (+240)
Per usual, the Los Angeles Chargers charged to disappointment last season, and Herbert played through fractured rib cartilage following a Week 2 injury while throwing for just 264.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per attempt across the following eight contests.
Here’s the thing, though.
Herbert still finished the season with a second-ranked 4,739 passing yards in 2023, and the situation should prove to be considerably cushier in L.A. for Herbert in 2023. The Chargers grabbed wide receiver Quentin Johnson with their first-round selection, and the rookie is already making a strong early impression.
The arrival of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is at worst a lateral move, as the former Dallas Cowboys play caller favors an uptempo pace featuring frequent downfield attacks.
Simply put, expect the L.A. offense to be both more balanced and explosive this year.
While Herbert topped the 5,000-yard benchmark during the 2021 campaign, I still have him projected for just 4,438.7 passing yards this season.
| Sportsbook | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards total | 4,450.5 | 4,400.5 | 4,339.5 | 4,325.5 | 4,500.5 |
| Over | -110 | -112 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
| Under | -110 | -112 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
Despite my optimism for Herbert putting together a banner statistical season, I’m again not thrilled with short odds for him to top 5,000 passing yards. There’s an outlier +1100 number through DraftKings for Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards, or targeting the Over 4,339.5 total through BetMGM is a more conservative option.
Kirk Cousins (+300)
The Minnesota Vikings also received a shiny new toy in their offense with the selection of wide receiver Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He’ll line up opposite fourth-year phenom Justin Jefferson and fill out a pass-catching corps that also includes underrated wideout K.J. Osborn and talented tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Add Minny parting ways with long-time No. 1 running back Dalvin Cook, and the Vikes might just air it out more than ever this season.
And now the fun part, Captain Kirk, the king of the prime-time letdown.
Cousins flirted with 5,000 passing yards when he chucked up a career-high 4,917 during the 2016 campaign. He’s topped 4,500 yards only once since, but that was last season. The problem is that it also took a career-high 643 pass attempts to get to 4,547 yards.
My projection is for Cousins to throw for 4,387.6 passing yards, which is also right in line with the passing-yard totals across our best sportsbooks.
| Sportsbook | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards total | 4,375.5 | 4,325.5 | 4,324.5 | 4,350.5 | 4,350.5 |
| Over | +110 | -112 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
| Under | -130 | -112 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
When searching through the available betting markets for Cousins, I landed on his touchdown total, which is 28.5 (-110/-110) through both DraftKings and BetMGM. My touchdown projection for Cousins is 32.2, so there’s cushion for the Over, and the vig isn’t crippling.
Top picks
- Total: Patrick Mahomes Over 4,675.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Total: Justin Herbert Over 4,339.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Most NFL passing yards: Justin Herbert (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐
- Total: Kirk Cousins Over 28.5 touchdown passes (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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