Colts vs. Vikings Prediction Tonight: Sunday Night Football Odds & SNF Picks
The Indianapolis Colts will rely on a new passer under center tonight at U.S. Bank Stadium as they face the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.
The Vikings are 5.5-point favorites by the latest Sunday Night Football odds as they look to end a two-game spell against the new-look Colts.
- The Colts benched starting quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco
- Indianapolis is coming off its first loss while visiting the Houston Texans since 2019
- Minnesota is getting the third-best odds to win the NFC North after following up a 5-0 start with consecutive losses
While the Vikings are inside the top 10 in the Super Bowl odds, we like the Colts' chances to keep it close in our Colts vs. Vikings prediction.
Colts vs. Vikings odds movement: Sunday Night Football
We haven't seen a ton of movement ahead of kickoff tonight, as the Vikings remain 5.5-point favorites across the best sportsbooks heading into Sunday Night Football.
Minnesota opened as a 6.5-point favorite and briefly touched -7 at some shops, but we've seen the line coalesce around -5.5 with the Colts turning to a new quarterback in veteran Joe Flacco.
Best Colts vs. Vikings picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Colts +5.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Michael Pittman longest reception Over 19.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Colts vs. Vikings against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
Colts to cover the spread: +5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Flacco gives Colts a better chance
Richardson was coming off a one-touchdown and two-turnover performance in last week’s loss to the Texans. That brought his season total to five touchdowns and nine turnovers.
Richardson had posted an NFL-worst 44.4% completion percentage and 24.4% off-target percentage. He also logged a 38 Total QBR and a 4:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.
Meanwhile, Flacco is 5-2 in his last seven starts while posting an 18:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His numbers are better than Richardson's output this season in nearly every category, including QBR (his 74 is fifth-best among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 pass attempts), completion percentage (66%), and TD:INT ratio (7-1).
The Colts simply deemed Richardson too raw and turnover-prone to be effective. He's started 10 NFL games (451 snaps) and 13 in college (925 snaps), while Flacco has played 12,086 snaps in his NFL career.
Colts due for positive regression
The Colts are the first team in NFL history to register a margin of victory of six points or fewer in their first eight contests, four of which resulted in losses. Those defeats have come by a total of 14 points, which makes this point spread seem very attractive.
Vikings dealing with a key injury
The Vikings lost standout offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending knee injury last week, and trading for Cam Robinson still represents a significant dropoff at the position.
Minnesota is coming off season-lows in points (20) and rushing yards (64), and it went just 2-of-7 on third-down conversion attempts. That led to the Vikings' defense being on the field for more than 33 minutes, which somewhat compromises the team's extended rest after playing last Thursday.
Indianapolis is +5 through DraftKings, so I'm pouncing on any of the +5.5s at the standard -110 juice out there. Through FanDuel, a winning $10 wager with a Colts cover would pay out $19.09 as part of your NFL Week 9 predictions.
I backed Indianapolis to cover in my Colts vs. Vikings early picks too, though at an even better +6 spread.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Colts vs. Vikings player prop
Michael Pittman longest reception Over 19.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Colts pass-catchers will receive a significant boost with the quarterback change. They go from Richardson, who ranks dead-last among 42 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, to Flacco, who sits seventh.
Michael Pittman has produced zero games with eight-plus catches this season after leading the league with 10-such outings in 2023.
I'm not backing Pittman’s receptions, as the Over of 4.5 is juiced as high as -167 through Caesars, one of our best NFL prop betting sites. However, Minnesota’s blitz-heavy scheme should allow for more opportunities for significant plays in the passing game, especially since Joe Flacco averages a league-best 14.3 yards per completion when blitzed since 2023, according to ESPN Research.
The Over is juiced as high as -120 through BetMGM. The receiving yardage total Pittman is getting shows he comes with a safe floor (52.5), so I expect him to tally at least one 20-plus-yard reception tonight.
Elsewhere, Phil Wood is expecting a productive night from another Colts receiver in his Colts vs. Vikings SNF player props.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Colts vs. Vikings odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Colts vs. Vikings
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Vikings -5.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
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