Caleb Williams SNF Player Prop Bets: Sunday Night Football

Bears QB Caleb Williams will look to bounce back from his debut performance as the Bears visit the Texans on Sunday Night Football.

Mike Spector

Last updated: September 15, 2024 9:40 AM EDT • 5 min read

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams drops back to pass as we look at our Caleb Williams SNF player props for Bears vs. Texans. — Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams drops back to pass. Photo by: Andrew Nelles/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams looks to bounce back from his debut performance in his first primetime game on Sunday Night Football as his Chicago Bears visit the Houston Texans.

Dreadful? Underwhelming? Uninspiring? Those would all be accurate words to describe Caleb Williams’ NFL debut last week when he threw for just 93 yards at home against the Tennessee Titans.

But Williams would tell you that “a win is a win,” and he became the first rookie drafted No. 1 overall to win his first start since David Carr in 2002.

We've already broken down the game with our Bears vs. Texans SNF prediction and our Bears vs. Texans player props, so now it's time to dive deeper.

Our Caleb Williams SNF player prop bets analyze whether he is prepared for a better statistical performance in this matchup. Based on the Sunday Night Football odds, the Bears are 6.5-point underdogs.

Caleb Williams prop predictions for Sunday Night Football

Caleb Williams Under 20.5 completions (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Caleb Williams longest completion Under 35.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Caleb Williams Over 0.5 interceptions (-135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Caleb Williams player props

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Caleb Williams Under 20.5 completions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Williams’ passing touchdown props are too steep for my liking, as the best price for him to throw one or fewer touchdowns is -205 at FanDuel. Thus, I had to get creative with other markets to return the best value, and I am making the Under on his completions a speculative three-star play not solely based on his 14 completions last week but also because two of his best receivers (Rome Odunze-knee, Keenan Allen-heel) have been limited in practice this week.

Houston did a great job playing keep-away from the Indianapolis Colts last week, as running back Joe Mixon turned in his first career game with 30-plus carries and over a five-yard per carry average. A similar ball-control game plan lowers Williams’ floor for completions considerably.

Philip Wood thinks a similar bet may work in his C.J. Stroud player props.

This prop is juiced as high as -130 at FanDuel, so the best value is at bet365, where a $10 winning wager would return $8.70 in profits.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Caleb Williams longest completion Under 35.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Again, this is not a simple reaction to last week when Williams’ longest completion went for 13 yards, and only two of his completions went for 10-plus yards.

Rather, the three stars of confidence for this play lie in the fact that the Texans tied for the second-highest usage of a two-high safety look among all 32 NFL teams last week, which is designed to limit big plays in the passing game.

Granted, Anthony Richardson and the Colts still connected on two touchdown passes of 54-plus yards. But Williams was under constant pressure last week, and the Bears’ 108 sacks allowed over the last two seasons are tied for the fifth-most in that span, so I do not expect him to have the time to launch bombs downfield often.

BetMGM has the steepest price for this wager at -120 odds.

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Caleb Williams Over 0.5 interceptions (-135) ⭐⭐⭐

Among all the bad one can say about Williams’ performance last week, some of the only positives are that he only took two sacks and that he did not turn the ball over. However, he did complete fewer than 50% of his passes, and his 3.2 yards per attempt were the second-fewest in an NFL debut by a first-round quarterback all-time.

With as much as Williams projects to misfire again in this matchup, the 57.45% implied probability for him to throw an interception to a team that was tied for fifth in turnover margin last year (+10) is great value. There is a 34-cent gap between FanDuel’s -135 odds and Caesars’ -169 odds, so I am maximizing value at FanDuel, where a $10 wager would pay out $17.41.

Best odds: -135 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 57.45%

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Bears vs. Texans odds

Sunday Night Football game info

Matchup: Bears vs. Texans
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
How to watch: NBC/Peacock
Weather: 84 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4 mph wind S
Favorite: Texans (-275 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”