Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & TNF Picks
The first Thursday Night Football matchup of the season pits two AFC East rivals tonight when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Amazon Prime Video.
According to our Week 2 NFL odds, the Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points over the Bills after both teams survived tough tests in Week 1.
Buffalo has won 11 of the last 12 games in this divisional rivalry (including the playoffs) after sweeping the Dolphins last season, though the Bills are still underdogs by the latest Thursday Night Football odds.
I broke down this matchup in my Bills vs. Dolphins early picks, and I offer a five-star endorsement of the home favorites in my Bills vs. Dolphins prediction, picks and odds below.
I also analyze which Dolphins player I expect to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that moved on from many of its veteran defensive stalwarts from years past as I make my Week 2 NFL predictions.
Bills vs. Dolphins odds movement: Thursday Night Football
When I made my initial pick for this game on Wednesday, the Dolphins were dealing as 1.5-point favorites to beat the Bills at home.
That line has since jumped to a consensus -2.5 across our best sportsbooks as bettors express confidence in Mike McDaniel's group following last week's last-second win over the Jaguars.
The betting total has also settled around 48 in the hours ahead of kickoff, a far cry from the opening total of 52.5 for tonight's game.
Best Bills vs. Dolphins picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Dolphins -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Bills ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown scorer (+170 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
You can also dive into our Bills vs. Dolphins TNF prop bets and Tyreek Hill TNF player prop bets.
Our Esten McLaren has a pair of anytime touchdown scorer predictions to boost your Thursday Night Football prop bets.
Bills vs. Dolphins spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Picks originally made on Wednesday; odds subject to change.
Dolphins to cover the spread: -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buffalo will get a lot of betting support this week, having dominated the head-to-head with the Dolphins over the last several years and coming into this year as the favorite to win its fifth consecutive AFC East title.
However, this year’s team is constructed much differently than the Bills teams of recent years, and that should be too much to overcome in this matchup.
Buffalo lost its veteran presence
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may be just 1-6 straight up in seven career games against Josh Allen, but he and the Dolphins are about to face a vastly different Bills defense than in the past.
In the offseason, Buffalo parted ways with three of its most critical secondary members, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and cornerback Tre'Davious White. It's also without Taron Johnson (forearm) for this game. The Bills were already going to have difficulty with the Dolphins' passing attack.
Over the last two years, Tagovailoa has ranked in the top five among all quarterbacks in QBR, yards per attempt, and passing touchdowns.
Is Allen out of miracles?
It took a Herculean effort from Allen last week to help the Bills climb out of a 14-point deficit against the Arizona Cardinals.
He became the fifth player with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns in a season opener, and he is now tied with Steve Young for the most games (four) with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns in the same game in his career.
Allen would need another game of that magnitude to keep pace with the high-scoring Dolphins, especially if Tagovailoa plays up to his standard.
Ignore the Tua trends
Last year, Tagovailoa went 1-6 in seven starts against teams over .500, posting an 8-7 TD-INT ratio, completing 63% of his passes, producing a 46 Total QBR, and leading the team to a 16.1 points per game average in those starts.
But prepping for Miami’s speed is difficult in any week, let alone a short week, and Buffalo’s personnel is not as equipped to handle what Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins offense will throw at it.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering Miami at -1.5 with the standard -110 juice. With most competing sportsbooks at -2, I am making my $10 wager at FanDuel, which would pay out $19.09 if it cashes.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
Bills vs. Dolphins player prop
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown scorer (+170) ⭐⭐⭐
Waddle is one of nine players with 1,000 or more receiving yards in each of their first three seasons in NFL history. And while that had me looking at his O/U of 63.5 receiving yards as a potential play, I could not pass up the value of his anytime touchdown odds.
Waddle’s touchdowns were cut in half from eight to four last season, but he played three fewer games and is still a big reason Miami receivers finished in the top four of the league in receiving yards, yards per reception, first downs, and touchdowns (30).
Waddle has 102 or more receiving yards in two of the last three games against the Bills, so I expect positive regression from a touchdown standpoint, as he has just one touchdown catch in that span.
Caesars has the shortest odds (+138) for Waddle to score a touchdown, so FanDuel’s +170 odds are a great value, where a winning $10 wager would return $17 in profits.
Best odds: +170 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.04%
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
Bills vs. Dolphins odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 90 degrees, 48% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph SSE
- Favorite: Dolphins (-125 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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