MLB Wins Leader Odds 2024: Can Braves' Strider Repeat As Favorite?

Spencer Strider led all pitchers in wins in 2023, and he's once again the favorite by the latest 2024 MLB wins leader odds and predictions based on the best MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

After bursting onto the scene as a starter/reliever in 2022, Spencer Strider led the majors with 20 wins for the Atlanta Braves in 2023. And he's the early favorite to do it again in 2024.

Only one of our best sports betting sites is offering odds for this market, which is as reliant on a pitcher's skill as it is on sheer luck and the circumstances around them. As a result, this prop has been friendly to long-shot bettors in recent years, and there is no shortage of potential value plays heading into spring training.

Here's our look at the best odds for the 2024 MLB wins leader, with our best MLB picks among the favorites, contenders, and long shots.

MLB 2024 wins leader odds

(Odds updated Feb. 22)

MLB 2024 wins leader favorite

Spencer Strider (+700 via Caesars)

With only Caesars offering odds on this market right now, I wouldn't recommend betting the shortest price on the board. That said, it's easy to see why Strider is dealing as the early favorite.

The Braves star was virtually untouchable in 2023, striking out 13.5 batters per nine innings with an NL-best 2.85 FIP. It's no surprise that he paced the majors with 20 wins, especially with MLB's best lineup supporting his cause.

All of that remains true in 2024, and there's a case to be made that Strider hasn't even reached his true ceiling as a pitcher. Strider should be good for at least 15 wins once again, and he could blow past that mark if he stays healthy.

If you're hesitant to make this bet, Strider is also the early favorite by our Cy Young odds and our strikeout leader odds, and we'd expect him to be a strong contender in both markets.

MLB 2024 wins leader odds: Contender

Gerrit Cole (+900 via Caesars)

This appears to be a two-horse race between Strider and Cole, according to these early odds from Caesars. That makes sense considering the Braves and New York Yankees have two of the three highest MLB win totals entering 2024.

Incredibly, Cole has never led MLB in pitcher wins, though he finished with a sterling 15-4 record last year while pacing the AL in ERA (2.63), win percentage (78.9%), innings pitched (209), and total starts (33). That's the sort of profile that screams potential wins leader, even if his offense provided little support in 2023.

While Cole has been remarkably healthy in his four seasons with the Yankees, he is entering his age-33 season and has shown some signs of aging with a slight dip in his fastball velocity. He should be in the mix by season's end, though these odds ask for a little more certainty than you'd like for an aging ace.

MLB 2024 wins leader odds: Long shot

Bobby Miller (+5000 via Caesars)

If we're looking for pitchers with the potential to post sky-high wins totals, why not start our search with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who own the highest preseason win total of any team in baseball with three MVP winners in their batting order?

You can make a strong case for Tyler Glasnow (+2000) or Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+2500), and both are very much so worth a bet in this market. But I'm similarly intrigued by Miller, who looks the part of a burgeoning ace and should have (nearly) as many opportunities as those two to stack wins in 2024.

Los Angeles does flirt with a six-man rotation in the regular season, which caps the pure upside of all three arms in this market. At this price, though, I'll gladly take that risk on Miller, who went 11-4 in 22 starts last season and only needs a few breaks to have a real shot in this race.

Recent MLB wins leaders

*Pandemic-shortened season

MLB 2024 wins leader odds analysis

Betting on the MLB wins leader isn't just about the pitcher. It's also about their opportunity, circumstances, and some dumb luck along the way.

Take Gerrit Cole, for example. The New York Yankees ace led the American League in just about every metric in 2023, including games started (33) and win percentage (78.9%), but he won just 15 of his 33 starts because of a whopping 14 no-decisions - many of which can be blamed on a lineup that ranked 25th in runs scored (673).

To cash in this market, you need the perfect mix of ability, durability, and run support, which is why the favorites are often productive starters with proven longevity and a lineup that can help their cause along the way. That's also the recipe for finding a worthwhile long shot that might not have the name value of an ace.

MLB wins leader FAQs

Who is the favorite to lead MLB in wins?

Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider is the betting favorite (+700) to lead MLB in wins at Caesars, which is the only sportsbook currently offering this market.

Who led MLB in wins last season?

Spencer Strider led the majors with 20 wins across 32 starts for the Atlanta Braves in the 2023 regular season.

When will the wins leader be decided?

The winner in this market will be the pitcher who leads MLB in wins at the end of the regular season, which concludes on Sept. 29, 2024.

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