MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, Aug. 14
The Athletics pitching staff has been light-years worse than any other in the Majors of late, especially at home at Sutter Health Park. That has me excited to make a Texas Rangers slugger the focal point of my home run predictions today.
In addition to fading the Athletics with Jake Burger to go deep, I also oppose the struggling Rockies veteran Kyle Freeland with a Giants slugger who has taken him deep twice. The last of my four MLB home run picks are Matt Olson, who has been on a tear since July 1, and Jac Caglianone, who has quietly put up tremendous numbers for the struggling Royals.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 14
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger to hit a home run (+362 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.91u | The Athletics pitching staff ranks as MLB’s worst pitching staff in home games in most statistical categories |
| Matt Olson to hit a home run (+320 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.8u | Olson has three more home runs than any other player since July 1 |
| Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+280 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 0.7u | Caglianone ranks in the top four in batting average and slugging in August |
| Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+577 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.44u | Devers has gone deep twice off Freeland in his career |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.85 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Jake Burger (+362)
While every Texas Rangers hitter is facing Gage Jump for the first time, this is a blind fade of the young southpaw given his poor numbers at the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park.
Jump has pitched to a 6.16 ERA and a .302 OBA at home, where he has also allowed four of his seven home runs. Right-handed batters also have an OPS 58 points higher against him than lefties and are responsible for five of his homers allowed.
Jake Burger has a .815 OPS against left-handed pitching, and I’m banking on him snapping a 16-game home run drought.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: MLB worsts at home
The Athletics’ 6.66 ERA and 5.75 FIP at home are worse than the 29th-ranked team in those metrics in home splits by 0.85 and 0.71, respectively.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+320)
Matt Olson has hit an MLB-high 15 home runs since July 1. Over that span, only one other player (Junior Caminero) has more than 11.
Olson’s .354 ISO leads the Majors in that span as well, while ranking sixth in slugging percentage and 19th in wRC+. He has also connected for a home run on 28.8% of his fly balls. That gives him a better chance to homer than most in the Braves lineup when facing a ground ball pitcher like Brandon Pfaadt (81st percentile ground ball rate).
Though Olson has never homered off Pfaadt, both of his hits have gone for extra bases.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+280)
Jac Caglianone enters this series amid an 11-game hitting streak, during which he has slashed .409/.422/.773. The batting average and slugging percentage were second and fourth among all MLB hitters in August.
In his first 57 games since June 1, he was slashing .291/.332/.573 with 16 home runs and a 147 wRC+. In that span, among those with a minimum of 150 plate appearances, he was in the top 10 for home runs, slugging, and xwOBA, and the top 15 for RBI, wRC+, and hard-hit rate.
Caglianone doesn’t get cheated on swings, ranking seventh in hard-hit rate and bat speed. In addition, his 416 average feet of home runs is the longest average home run distance since the start of 2025.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+577)
Before one chalks up Kyle Freeland’s poor numbers to being a victim of the altitude of Coors Field, one should know his 7.81 ERA and .320 OBA on the road are worse than his 5.49 ERA and .283 OBA in home starts.
Twelve of Freeland’s 21 home runs allowed have come in road starts. Even though Oracle Park is cavernous, it favors right-handed batters, and Devers has a great chance to improve upon his 1.000 OPS against Freeland and take him deep for the third time.
The southpaw ranks in the ninth percentile or worse in barrels and XBA, and has allowed a whopping .723 slugging percentage off his fastball which he throws a quarter of the time.
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jake Burger to hit a home run (+362)
- Matt Olson to hit a home run (+304)
- Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+244)
- Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+577)
Best odds: +43368 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 43.4u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 224-357-1 | +48.24 units ✅ | +13.1% ✅ |
| Game picks | 88-67-1 | +14.03 units ✅ | +7.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 136-290 | +34.21 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
Related Articles
