Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Aug. 14

Clay Holmes makes just his second start for the Chicago Cubs, who open a three-game series at Wrigley Field against the St. Louis Cardinals in one of MLB’s best rivalries. My Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction calls for a slugfest, with Holmes still looking rusty after a long layoff and Matthew Liberatore’s struggles in Chicago.

That should mean a big day at the plate for JJ Wetherholt and Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose player props I add with the last of my MLB picks.

This is the only afternoon game on Friday’s slate, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV). The Cubs are -180 betting favorites.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Cubs picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.44 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Cubs?

Chicago is unbeaten in each of its last four series openers, and is 7-0 in its last seven home games against a left-handed starting pitcher.

Score prediction: Cubs 6, Cardinals 4

💰 Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

Over 7.5 (-125)

Clay Holmes looked rusty in his Cubs debut after making his first start in nearly three months. Last Saturday, Holmes was tagged for four runs in four innings, and a season-low one of his 12 outs came via strikeout. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just beat two of the best pitchers in the game (Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler) on consecutive days while scoring nine runs and going 6-for-16 with runners in scoring position.

Conversely, Matthew Liberatore has a career 5.29 ERA in road starts, in line with his 5.30 ERA and 1.446 WHIP at Wrigley Field.

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Cubs player prop bet

JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 runs (+139)

JJ Wetherholt was recently ranked as the 32nd-best player in the Majors in ESPN’s MLB Rank 2026 in-season update. He ranks 12th among all position players in WAR, and the St. Louis tablesetter has scored five runs in the last four games.

Wetherholt has eye-popping numbers in this rivalry in his rookie season. In 39 at-bats against the Cubs, he is slashing .410/.477/.615 with eight runs scored and two home runs. 

Holmes is a tough pitcher to steal against, as he has allowed just one stolen base on the season. But he also generated just four whiffs on 36 swings in his last start, so Wetherholt and his .351 xwOBA has a great chance of crossing the plate while his ceiling for strikeouts is lowered against Holmes.

💣 Cardinals vs. Cubs home run prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+500)

Given Matthew Liberatore’s poor splits as a southpaw against left-handed batters, Crow-Armstrong has a great chance to go deep this afternoon.

Liberatore has allowed a .315/.380/.546 slash line to left-handed batters. Seven of his 20 home runs allowed have come in that split (in less than a third of the at-bats), which is why his OPS allowed to lefties is 120 points higher than to righties.

Crow-Armstrong was at an 8.0 fWAR entering the week. For context, last year’s two MVPs (Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani) were at 7.0 and 6.2 on the same date. Two of Crow-Armstrong’s four hits off Liberatore have gone for extra bases, and he has a .932 OPS in that split.

And if you're looking for more taters today, my best home run predictions has you covered.

🚀 Cardinals vs. Cubs same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping the Over to cash. Wetherholt has scored at least one run in seven of the last 13 games, and Crow-Armstrong has hit safely in eight of his last 10, with three multi-hit games mixed in. In addition, I’m following the trend that the Over is 5-0-1 in Liberatore’s last six starts where the team has scored at least five runs in the previous game.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Cubs: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I would not put anyone off backing Chicago’s moneyline or runline odds, given that it is an NL-best 19-9 since July 11. But I typically draw the line for wagering on a team’s moneyline odds at -160, and Chicago’s -180 odds on the low end were too steep for my liking. That made the Over the better play, and the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field should help.

With the play on the Over on Wetherholt’s runs scored, those plus-money odds were more desirable than the Over 1.5 on his hits/runs/RBI, which were 38 cents lower (+108) at the same sportsbook.

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Cubs odds

📈 Cardinals vs. Cubs betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Cubs injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Cubs

• Date: Friday, August 14
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Cardinals starter: Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Clay Holmes (4-5, 2.86 ERA)