Don't Bet on Another Cinderella in 2026's National Championship Futures: Best National Championship Futures

A year ago, the Indiana Hoosiers sat at 100-to-1 to win the national championship. To the select few who placed that preseason bet, well done and well deserved.

Don’t do it again.

That is not to say do not bet on Indiana to repeat; the Hoosiers may be a reasonable bet at +900 at FanDuel. (Simply for ease, this column will use only FanDuel odds today, but always remember to shop around.)

That is to say do not bet on another longshot to win the national championship. The expanded College Football Playoff creates an opportunity for a more informed moneyline-rollover that often pays out comparably to any preseason odds.

But for now, let’s focus on why you should avoid a longshot. And let’s define a longshot as anyone beyond Miami’s +1100 at FanDuel, narrowing the genuine field of national title contenders to:

📊 Current National Championship odds

Odds provided by BetMGM sportsbook.

These are, unsurprisingly, the same seven teams atop Bill Connelly’s final preseason SP+ ratings, though one might argue the ratings’ gap between Indiana at No. 5 and Texas at No. 6 (with Miami at No. 7) is another demarcation line.

For more than a decade, the rule of thumb in college football was that a team needed to have at least half of its roster made up of former four- and five-star recruits to win the national title, a concept first pondered by Bud Elliott as the “Blue-Chip Ratio.”

Indiana broke that rule of thumb, but the sharper way of framing that is, the Hoosiers became the exception proving the rule. Curt Cignetti is the exception in many ways, and his success will eventually lead many other programs astray as they try to replicate it.

Indiana enjoyed a confluence of circumstances to spark such success. Donors and alums — led by Mark Cuban — poured in money to help Cignetti haul in notable transfer classes in each of his first two (and now a third) offseasons. Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza led that group last season and was more successful than anyone expected. People who had watched Mendoza’s film for years never expected him to become the Heisman winner and No. 1 NFL draft pick.

🏆 Credit Cignetti. Credit Mendoza. But do not assume that can be replicated. Attempting to duplicate that is an unsustainable approach.

To get through a full season in impressive enough standing to snag a top-four seed and then win three straight games against top-10 opponents requires depth that is becoming more and more rare as talent distribution levels out in college football. Only so many teams have that luxury.

Does it seem bold to rule out even teams like Oklahoma (+2200), LSU (+2500), Alabama (+2500) and Texas A&M (+2700)? Yes, yes it does. But look at their schedules.

The Sooners have trips to Michigan and Georgia while also facing both Texas and Texas A&M. The Tigers open the season against Clemson before an SEC slate featuring Mississippi, Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas. The Tide have to work through Georgia, Texas A&M and Death Valley. Do you want to guess what Texas A&M’s schedule looks like? Don’t forget to add Texas to it.

They will each be lucky to simply make the Playoff — those four range from +145 to +195 to reach the 12-team Playoff — and those schedules all-but rule out a first-round bye. So they will then need to win four straight games against comparable competition, after a regular season has already worn them to a pulp.

The second year of the expanded Playoff may have yielded a shocking result, but betting on that to happen again does nothing but ignore how impressive Indiana’s process and run was.

📈 A longshot bet may be fun.

It may be a great headline. Casual bettors may be more drawn to social media-driven quips touting Clemson at 200-to-1 or Penn State at 80-to-1 or even Michigan at 40-to-1. But the Tigers have foundational problems that Dabo Swinney refuses to address, costing them the depth needed now more than ever. The Nittany Lions are relying on an Iowa State-caliber quarterback. And the internet does not provide a word count long enough to detail the problems with Michigan men.

Such thoughts apply to every team past the 30-to-1 marker, no matter what Indiana did last year.

Looking for “another Indiana” is like looking for “the next Cignetti.”

They did not establish a new paradigm beyond their own front door. They were the exception that proved the rule.